Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202
Our little systems have their day; They have their day and cease to be - Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H. This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund - $716 680
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund - $41 103
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund - $77 788
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund - $111 667
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) - $202 336
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) - $54 872
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) - $230 058
Telstra shares (TLS) -$1 785
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) - $6 449
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) - $5 316
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) - $124 756
Secured physical gold - $20 070
Ratesetter (P2P lending) - $9 881
Bitcoin - $173 010
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) - $17 258
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) -$2 619
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) - $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%) Asset allocation
Australian shares - 41.1%
Global shares- 22.2%
Emerging market shares - 2.2%
International small companies - 2.9%
Total international shares - 27.3%
Total shares - 68.4% (6.6% under)
Total property securities - 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds - 4.5%
International bonds - 9.1%
Total bonds - 13.6% (1.4% under)
Gold - 8.0%
Bitcoin - 9.6%
Gold and alternatives - 17.7% (7.7% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March. The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year. [Chart] This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings. These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015. For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic. This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares. Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits. Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return. In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns. This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting. This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution. Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates. The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years. [Chart] From this chart some observations can be made.
The level of franking credits has grown substantially over the past ten years - from a total of under $1 000 per year to around $8 000 annually.
Recent years have seen a particularly high accrual of franking credits - such that by value, over half of the total value of franking credits has been received over the past three financial years.
These credits now constitute a significant element in total realised returns - in the last financial year the value of franking credits represented a 12 per cent boost to the total level of cash distributions, and over the past two years they have contributed around $8 000 each year to the total level of after-tax returns. This is the equivalent of the portfolio paying nearly $700 per month in tax liabilities.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded. The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period. [Chart] As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger. The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth. Close to cross-over: the credit card records One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income. One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed. Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month. [Chart] The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued. The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received. An updated version of this is seen in the chart below. [Chart] Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume. One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000. The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels. In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0% Summary One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close. There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water. Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose. Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions. This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true. Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
ABOUT HUOBI : Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in China in 2013. Currently, Huobi is based in Singapore because this country has friendlier cryptocurrency regulations. The company is registered in Seychelles. Before leaving China due to a cryptocurrency ban, the exchange was responsible for 90% of Bitcoin trading volume in this country. Now Huobi is an international platform with offices located in Singapore, Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, and Korea. In China, the company provides blockchain consulting services. Huobi has sub-exchanges: Huobi Korea, Huobi US, etc. Huobi Global is the biggest Huobi exchange. In November 2019 Huobi Global had to shut down all the accounts belonging to the US customers due to strict cryptocurrency regulations of the USA. This exchange is one of the top 50 cryptocurrency exchanges by trade volume. On the Coingecko chart of exchanges, Huobi Global occupies the third position. The exchange has more than 500 markets and supports over 220 cryptocurrencies. As Huobi provides an option to buy cryptocurrency with fiat money, this exchange is a gateway for people who enter the cryptocurrency world . FEATURES : Huobi Global has a really wide range of functions. First off, this exchange provides an opportunity to buy cryptocurrencies with fiat money using a credit card and other payment means. This option is delivered in the over-the-counter trading section (OTC). There is a menu line in the upper part of the website. It begins with "But Crypto". That's where one can see the OTC offerings provided by Huobi. One can buy or sell the following currencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Tether (USDT), EOS, XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Huobi Token (HT), Huobi stablecoin (HUSD), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Please note, that there are not so many offerings especially for certain currencies. Normally there are many options for buying BTC or USDT. The prices and payment methods vary from one trader to another. You can pay with a credit card, some traders accept payments via Western Union, AliPay, and other services. There is a cryptocurrency exchange with hundreds of crypto-to-crypto pairs. The exchange supports market, limit and stop-limit orders. It gives traders some control over the situation and helps to secure the assets from trading in loss to some extent. In general, the exchange interface of Huobi is quite generic. Those who have experience of trading on several other exchanges will find the interface familiar. It has a trading view with a candlestick chart on the left and the list of orders updating in real-time on the right. Under the charts, there is an order history. Under the list of market trades, there is a section where users can place orders. The candlestick chart is powered with numerous analysis tools and indicators. What makes Huobi Global more attractive for traders is the support of margin trading. In all margin trading pairs the currencies are traded against Tether (USDT). There are 6 cryptocurrencies that can be traded with x3 leverage: Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), XRP, Ether (ETH), and EOS. Huobi Global is aimed to provide service both to small investors and institutional traders. That's the reason why the platform offers institutional accounts with special opportunities for corporate customers. Among these features, there are colocation options and other tools that provide the opportunity of seamless high-frequency trading. Additionally, institutional accounts can get special OTC loans. One more feature is trading derivatives. Huobi provides two separate interfaces for that purpose: Swap trading and Futures trading platforms on Huobi DM. Moreover, it is possible to participate in IEO trading via the Huobi exchange. This feature requires the use of the Huobi Token. ASSETS AND INSTRUMENTS: As mentioned, there are two types of instruments that you can trade on the Huobi derivatives platform. These are your traditional futures as well as the perpetual swaps or futures. With these instruments, you are trading crypto on margin. This means that they are leveraged and your exposure is often many multiples of the amount that you have put down as collateral. Now that we have a brief understanding of leverage, let’s take a look at the instruments on offer at the Huobi exchange. Futures are instruments that allow the holder to buy or sell some asset in the future. Essentially, you are trading some future price of the instrument on the chose delivery date. In terms of expiry dates, they have weekly, bi-weekly and Quarterly which settle every Friday. In terms of expiry dates, they have weekly, bi-weekly and Quarterly which settle every Friday. When it comes to the specifics of the contract, they differ according to which asset is being traded. You should also take a look into the contract specifics in the Huobi docs. This includes such information as the index reference for the prices as well as your last trading price. The latter can only be done up till 10 minutes before the expiry. Perpetual swaps are leveraged instruments that do not have have a delivery date. They are marked to market everyday and settle 3 times a day. They are sometimes also called “perpetual futures” at other exchanges. The reason that they are called “Swaps” at Huobi Derivatives is because you are swapping the returns of one asset for the returns of another. Here, you are swapping crypto returns for returns on the US dollar. At Huobi DM, the Perpetual swaps have leverage up to 125x and they are written on 5 different assets. These are Bitcoin and Ethereum with other coins to be added soon. HUOBI APPS: Huobi mobile app for iOS and Android are available. Similarly, the Huobi mobile app features most of the functionalities available on the web platform also. You can even complete tasks like account registration and verification directly via the app. In Google Play, the Huobi Global app has an average rating of 4.1 stars out of 3,730 reviews. However, in December 2018 and January 2019, some users have said that the Android app won’t let them login due to an error with Captcha. On the Apple App Store, Huobi boasts an average rating of 4.9 stars out of over 4,800 reviews. API : For those of you who are programmers, you will be happy to learn that Huobi global API can be used on the Futures and Swap markets. There is both a websocket as well as a REST version available. It is suggested that you use the REST for one off operation to trade and withdraw. You should use the websocket for market data & order updates. You should also note that you can be a market maker on through the API. If you want to start using the API then you will to get yourself an API key. This can easily be done in the API management of your account dashboard. Here you can select whether you would like it to be a read-only, Withdraw or Trade. You can also bind an IP address to this API so you can ensure than no other person will use your account even if compromised. HUOBI FEES : Huobi has a 0.2 % fee that applies to both market makers and takers for amounts between $0 and $5,000,000 over the course of a 30-day period. In comparison, other top exchanges like Binance have 0.1 percent fees. Actually, it has a fair trading fees structure and easy to remember also. Meanwhile, GDAX has 0.3 percent fees. In January 2019, Huobi Global launched a tiered fee structure that significantly reduces fees for higher-volume traders. This is relatively competitive when compared to other exchanges. Users also have the option to reduce trading fees on Huobi by becoming a VIP member. This involves paying a monthly payment of HT, which varies depending on the membership level (1-5). Like most exchanges, Huobi has no fees on deposits. However, Huobi does have withdrawal fees minimums that vary from coin-to-coin. For example, withdrawing Bitcoin (BTC) costs 0.001 BTC, with a minimum withdrawal amount of 0.01 BTC. For Tether (USDT), the flat fee is 5 USDT. And the minimum withdrawal amount is 20 USDT. Overall, the meaning- Huobi fees are generally higher than most exchanges for lower withdrawal amounts. A few exceptions exist. For example, TUSD has a withdrawal minimum of $20 but a withdrawal fee of only $2. IS IT TRUSTWORTHY? In contrast to other exchanges, Huobi receives a favorable score. First of all, it is incorporated and operated from Singapore. As we all know crypto regulations are advanced there. And promote blockchain startups always. Second, Huobi does provide users with multiple ways to safeguard their accounts. Although it is not enough. Essentially, 2-factor authentication is available using both SMS and authenticator apps. The platform does not require any special confirmation if the account is logged into from an unfamiliar IP address or location. There is no option to whitelist addresses for asset withdrawal, allowing funds to be sent to any address input. Furthermore, Huobi was never hacked. Even though they do present a lucrative target for attackers. Meaning, Huobi has adopted a decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. And we believe the exchange takes these threats seriously and does everything in their power to protect the exchange from hackers. Also, Huobi does store user funds in cold storage to restrict access to them. Actually, the exchange stores around 98 percent of funds in cold wallets. SUPPORT : Something else that is crucial to the entire trading experience is the level of support that the exchange provides. There is nothing more frustrating than having to wait hours for response from support. When it comes to Huobi, there are actually quite a few options to reach their customer support. Perhaps the quickest and most effective way is through their live chat function. Firstly, they will try to help you with the available resources. If that does not work then you can reach out to a live agent. CONCLUSION: So, in summary. We really liked the Huobi futures products. It is not only highly functional but is also secure and leverags the expertise that the team have at the main Huobi exchange. For the futures instruments, there is a decent range of assets and leverage. Markets are also pretty liquid and these are all traded on a simplistic yet technically able trading platform. It’s also great that you can trade on PC programs and mobile apps as well. When it comes to security, they have taken all of the same precautions that are used on the main exchange. Their 20,000 BTC strong insurance fund keeps them well protected and they have not had a single clawback of trader funds since their inception. Yes, there are areas for improvement but the exchanges is still evolving and building out functionality. One can only hope that they take trader suggestions into account. So then, is it worth considering? Well, if you are looking for a highly functional and secure futures exchange that is backed by one of the biggest names in the business, then it is well worth a try. Huobi Website: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=czdh5 UID: 138138177 Huobi Indian Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia Huobi Global Community: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
Bitcoin (BTC) Has Seen One Major Rally During Each Block Reward Era
https://preview.redd.it/lf7p0zqyn5d21.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a9c48586f96f1dda44b4a1af2d69b8bf57aa4f https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-btc-has-seen-one-major-rally-during-each-block-reward-era/ So far, there have been 3 block reward eras for Bitcoin (BTC). The first era started with the genesis block in early January 2009, and there were 50 Bitcoin per block. The second era began at block 210,000 in late November 2012, and the block reward halved to 25 Bitcoin. The third era, which we are in as of this writing, began at block 420,000 in early July 2016. The block reward is now 12.5 Bitcoin. When we overlay block reward halving dates on a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin’s price (below), it becomes apparent that there has been one major rally during each block reward era, at least so far. Further, roughly a year before the block halving that begins the era, the major rally of that era begins. Source: @MoonOverlord on Twitter As can be seen in the above chart the Bitcoin rally of late 2013 which brought Bitcoin over $1,000 for the first time occurred towards the middle of the 2nd era, and the rally to $20,000 in late 2017 occurred near the middle of the third era. The fourth block reward era, when block rewards will be slashed to 6.25 Bitcoin, will start at block 630,000, projected to occur in May 2020. If the trend in the above chart continues, Bitcoin would bottom in late Spring or early Summer 2019 and then rally for one to two years to new all-time highs. There may be some causation to this correlation. We expect that block halvings would help increase Bitcoin’s price since the rate of creation from mining is slashed. That means the Bitcoin inflation rate is halved. In the presence of increasing demand, the halving of the inflow of new Bitcoin would increase its price. That said, there are many other factors that influence Bitcoin’s market cycles, making it perhaps overly simplistic to say that Bitcoin’s past two market cycles have been entirely due to the block halving. This correlation could be a coincidence. It’s worth noting, however, that the rally of late 2013 ended as Mt. Gox collapsed, and the rally of 2017 ended as CME Bitcoin futures were launched and introduced massive short selling pressure. Nonetheless, traders and investors pricing in the next block halving may apply upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price when May 2020 approaches. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself and Bitcoin sees new all-time highs during the fourth block reward era.
It's not just Garena, from 2009 to 2013, Riot games was also using your computer to mine bitcoins (proof inside)
look at the facts league of legends alpha started in the first quarter of 2009... AT THE SAME TIME BITCOIN LAUNCHED there were 3 items, PHILOSOPHER'S STONE, AVARICE BLADE and KAGE'S LUCKY PICK with a passive gold gain effect... now u might ask, how can Riot give you this extra gold?? but it gets better... on september of 2009, Riot went all in by adding HEART OF GOLD to the game, which also had a gold generation effect (proof). now with heart of gold, philosophers stone, avarice blade and kage's lucky pick, every role has a gold generation item so if u are still wondering how riot made gold from thin air, the answer is very simple... gold generation items were actually MINING ITEMS, they were using your computer to mine bitcoin and paying you a small portion of the profits as the gold passive in the mining items RIOT GAMES were doing this from 2009 to 2013 when they finally removed the items on patch 3.14 i have gathered conclusive evidence that matches the date of patch 3.14 on november 20th 2013 by analyzing the bitcoin market data as you can see this snapshot of the final quarter of 2013 (check the data yourself if you dont believe me) they removed the mining items causing a major supply shortage which drove the price up to an all time high and then sold all their ill gained bitcoins, u can verify that the dates match up perfectly yourself here
Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition For Trading December 11th FED DAY Trump Impeachment Moves Forward Questions about Tariffs Join Us Every Day, Link Below Today’s market was another boring affair with questions about the end of the week tariffs, the typical pre-Fed decision, regardless of the known result, and the general lack of any real meaning to the Impeachment moving forward. We made the low -105 within the first 15 minutes and then rallied to the high +40 by 11:15. The rest of the day was like watching paint dry with moves of 25 in each direction dominating the trading. At the close the DJIA was -27.88 (.10%), NASDAQ -5.66 (.07%), S&P 500 -3.44 (.11%), the Russell +2.10 (.13%) and the DJ Transports the big loser -46.64 (.44%). The economic numbers today were unimpressive with non-farm productivity declined by .2% while unit labor costs increased 2.5%, cause to expect margin pressures for business. Tomorrow we have the FMOC decision (yawn), CPI, and MBA mortgage applications. Market internals were as you would expect at 1:1. The DJIA was 16 up, 14 lower with the BA -21 and MMM -15DPs. On the upside we had UNH +14 and AAPL +11DPs. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights. SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the news from AutoZone: AZO with a beat top and bottom and solid guidance. The stock finished $1,250 +81.00 (6.9%) followed by SFIX with good numbers last night and gave up a little of the late gains but finished the day +1.21 (4.8%). NFLX was downgraded by Needham based on their projections for a loss of up to 4 million U.S. subs. The stock, down from $385 mid-July fell another $9.38 (3.1%) to close $293.12. Conn’s, the furniture and consumer electronics retailer, was downgraded by KeyBanc after the Q3 earnings report. The stock, which went from $6.00 in late 2016 to trade higher for a 2 year move to $42.65, has made the round-trip and finished the day today $13.65 -6.85 (33.41%). FRAN, the fashion apparel firm, in the middle of a turn-around plan reported improved, but not good enough for Wall Street, fell to $12.44 -7.39 (37.27%). Also reporting after the close was GameStop: GME, the seller of electronic games and has already fallen from a peak of $57.74 in late 2013 in a steady decline to $3.28 before a brief rally back to $6.92 missed (again) and after closing $6.51, fell as low as $5.00 before finishing $5.57 -.94 (14.4%). This company looks to me like a death-spiral after missing the move away from over the counter sales to streaming of the game products. BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with only MYL -.33, and TEVA - .33 (3.38%) the losers. The biggest gainer was ICPT +4.01 (3.62%), followed by LABU +2.00 (3.53%). The IBB was $120.10 +.69 (.58%). CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again as GWPH, the only pharma company in the group +$6.36 (6.62%). The biggest loser was PYX -.65 (8.66%), and yesterday’s big winner CGC -1.24 (5.82%). Even KERN, the compliance software firm was lower today 11.60 -.29 (2.46%). Since mid-November, the stock has moved from $6.00 to trade as high as $13.50. MJ was $17.07 -.33 (1.9%). DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT +2.01, GD -2.89, TXT -.27, UTX -.82, NOC +.45, BWXT -.25, TDY +2.39, ITA $226.53 -.52 (.23%). RETAIL was MIXED with the stores higher and the brands lower. M +.24, JWN + .29, KSS unchanged and DDS +1.28. RL was +.75, UAA -.03, LULU -.78, TPR -.27, CPRI -.61 and XRT $44.91 -.02 (.04%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -.10, AMZN – 10.51, AAPL +1.58, FB -.47, NFLX (see above) -9.39 (3.1%), NVDA +1.56, TSLA +9.47 (2.79%), BABA +1.56, BIDU -.26, BOX -.05, IBM -.22, BA -3.31, CAT +.04 and XLK $87.37 +.07 (.08%). FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS - .01, JPM - .01, BAC - .02, MS -.05, C +.45, PNC +1.90, AIG -.59, TRV +.09, AXP +.44 and XLF $30.30 +.01 (.03%). OIL, $59.24 + .22. Today’s action was mostly just a quiet day for Oil and the other energy markets. Nat Gas was a shade higher and the stocks were mixed. I’m still interested in getting long UNG, but I’d like to see a bit of stability first, or at least a test of yesterday’s low. XLE was $59.77 + .12 (.20%). METALS, GOLD: $1,468.10 +3.20. We have fallen right back down to the most recent, and most important area of support around $1,450. I think we can see another test of $1,490 -$1,500 again. Current range is between 1450 -1490. BITCOIN: closed $7,215 -105. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I will add another 400 either higher or lower. GBTC closed $8.67 - .13 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
What can the earlier days of Bitcoin teach us about holding Ethereum?
Recently, I was thinking back to my first exposure to crypto, after talking with a couple of my coworkers who shared their own, more recent experience with me. It was late 2013 when I first bought BTC, but I had heard about Bitcoin a couple of years earlier. I thought the idea of internet money that nobody controlled sounded like a scam, so I stayed clear. I couldn't really understand the value proposition and didn't take the time to understand how it works (hindsight is 20/20). That started to change in early 2013. I learned much more about Bitcoin, which at the time was the only blockchain of any consequence, and began to understand the trustless nature of this revolutionary technology and how it would change the world. But what drew me in was the price. For those of you who weren't around then, it's worth taking a minute to open up that chart on Coinbase and see what that bump was in the grand scheme of things. See what now looks like a relatively little blip there in late 2013? That was when Bitcoin went roughly 10x in a month- from a $100 valuation to a $1000 valuation. I signed up for a Coinbase account shortly before Thanksgiving. Over that Thanksgiving, I spent the whole holiday / weekend talking to my family about how revolutionary this technology was- and wow, were they confused and unable to fathom it. To me, it seemed so obvious. Price increases have a way of "revealing" unassailable logic in situations like these. It took a while for Coinbase to approve my account, but I could hardly wait for that. I was on eBay, seeing if I could buy Casascius Coins. They were appealing to me at the time, because they merged an asset that was completely virtual with something that was tangible. My brain had still not fully accepted paying so much money for something that "didnt' exist" in real life. But the speculation was soaring so high on those coins (double the BTC value or more) that I decided to pass. Soon thereafter, I finally got access to Coinbase and bought my first Bitcoin for around $900. And then the price dropped, and it kept dropping. But I kept on buying, knowing that this is how asset markets worked. The price was going down, but for something this revolutionary, it would have to eventually go back up...at least that's what I was hoping. I bought all the way down to prices in the low $400s. And then in June 2014, I abruptly sold them all, at a sizable net loss. Why did I do that? What was going through my mind to make such a rash decision? Well, open that chart back up. The price had cratered down into the $230s and seemed to be stuck at these new lows- it was a winter that started earlier in that year and never ended. And the Mt Gox debacle was completely soul crushing and I really felt that my hopes for the success of a decentralized currency were completely dashed. And back then, there were no other alt coins to FOMO into. It was Bitcoin or (mostly) nothing. Besides, I had a major home purchase underway and decided that my money was better going into that rather than holding Bitcoin. In hindsight, I sold at what turned out to be the close to the bottom of Bitcoin. And then just look at that chart. A slow and steady increase over years, with $1000 only being reached again in March of this year. And as we enter Thanksgiving 4 years later, some of you are going to have these same conversations with your own families about Ethereum. I can tell you what some of them are going to say: "Internet money? I wouldn't invest in something like that. Who controls it? Isn't this just for criminals?" "Smart contracts? Even if they do work, what's the point of having them when you have regular contracts? And why does XYZ service even need to be decentralized?" "This whole thing sounds like a bubble. I hope you don't have much money in this..." So what does all of this teach us about holding Ethereum?
For many of your friends and family next week, it will be the first time they've heard of concepts like smart contracts or even cryptocurrency in any depth, but if Bitcoin is our teacher, it won't be the last. Take the time to explain it, but don't be pushy about it. Plant the seed, walk away, and send articles to them over the course of the next year.
Bitcoin's $1000 moment reminds me of ETH's $420 moment. Many new buyers FOMO'ed in and are still waiting for their returns, with many likely abandoning the path along the way. Most of the actual buyers of Bitcoin in 2013 then were "nerds" who were fascinated by the technology because they were among the few who took the time to understand it and felt comfortable putting large amounts of money into something on the internet. I would suggest that most recent ETH buyers are still in this "nerd" territory, without real mainstream understanding of what it is.
We are in what seems like a "long winter," with ETH stagnant at around $300. But it is unlikely our next big run will take 4 years to develop. I'm thinking a period of 3 to 12 months. The space isn't what it used to be, with massive institutional money coming and a very vibrant and mainstream-accepted development community. Those among you who were smart bought every token they could during the July depression. If that happens again, you know what to do.
Even if we had another Mt Gox style event (I won't name any exchanges or pegged tokens), it would probably not have the same impact as Mt Gox had. The system is much more diverse and resilient against such events now. There would be a drop, but it would be (hopefully) short lived.
If you just hold long enough, the price is very likely to go up. Possibly substantially up. Maybe even life changing amounts up. You understand the technology and the potential. Don't doubt yourself on your original thesis, like I did with Bitcoin a few years ago. The future picture for ETH has only gotten better in recent months.
So learn from Bitcoin, and don't screw this up for yourselves by taking rash actions- driven by impatience or outsized greed. I am not always one for hyperbole, but I am not exaggerating when I say that you may honestly regret it for the rest of your life.
A brief history of the 2013 market peak; why some alts really do die; and what would've happened if you'd given in to FOMO
This piece is a follow-up to my earlier piece, which looked at what would’ve happened if you’d purchased alt-coins shortly after the bottom of the 2013-2015 bear market. A lot of the constructive criticism that I received was that I was too bullish on alt-coins, and that the timing was too convenient. Although it’s fair to say that I am bullish on crypto in general and alt-coins in particular (with several major caveats for both), I agree that it’s important to not just focus on historical analyses where it’s fairly clear that you could have earned money. So, today’s research question is whether you’d still be underwater if you’d bought in to the market at or near the 2013 all-time high. All information cited herein comes from the historical charts available at CoinMarketCap. TL;DR: This worst-case scenario analysis shows that $300 invested equally across 15 of the 40 coins in existence near the market’s peak in 2013 would be worth only $429.95 today—gains which are entirely attributable to Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple. This is basic, but it can be dangerous to buy high. This is especially true of alt-coins, but even the top three coins in our sample saw fairly lackluster results when bought at the top of the market. Finally, nothing in this post should be taken as investment advice. This is only intended as historical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. A Brief History of the 2013 Market Peak According to CoinMarketCap, the 2013 bull market peaked on December 4, 2013, at ~$15.87 billion in market capitalization.* Thereafter, the market crashed dramatically not once, but twice. In the first crash, which occurred between December 5-8, 2013, overall market cap fell by ~39% to ~$9.66 billion. Then, after a brief recovery to ~$13.57 billion on December 10th, the market fell precipitously, to ~$5.7 billion on December 18, 2013. Thus, over the course of only two weeks, from December 4-18, 2013, the market lost ~64% of its value. Although this was by no means the end of the 2013-2015 bear market--which lasted for approximately 17 months and saw an additional decline of ~45% from the December 18, 2013 low--this was the end of the beginning. What If I Bought Crypto Right as the 2013 Market Peaked? Generally, the first rule of trading is** that you want to buy low and sell high. As a result of their fear of missing out (“FOMO”), however, many people find themselves accidentally buying high. Today, I’m going to look at what would have happened to someone who bought their crypto right as the market was peaking. Ideally, I would run this experiment from December 4, 2013, but due to the limited data available from CoinMarketCap, I’m forced to choose between November 24th, December 1st, December 8th, and December 15th. Of those dates, I have selected December 1, 2013, because it represents the worst possible scenario for which I have data. On that date, total crypto market cap, which had hit a new high of ~$15.4 billion the day before, swung wildly between a high of ~$14.83 billion and a low of ~$12.18 billion. Unfortunately, it’s unclear exactly when CoinMarketCap’s snapshot was taken. That said, it’s clear that our hypothetical FOMO trader is about to lose his shirt over the next few weeks, so let’s dive into the specifics. On December 1, 2013, there were 40 coins listed on CoinMarketCap. I won’t list them all here, but of those 40, all but 11 are still listed as active on CoinMarketCap. The truly dead (or “inactive”) coins are BBQCoin (BQC; rank 16), Devcoin (DVC; rank 19), Tickets (TIX; rank 22), Copperlark (CLR; rank 24), StableCoin (SBC; rank 25), Luckycoin (LKY—ironic, I realize; rank 31), Franko (FRK; rank 34), Bytecoin (BTE; rank 35), Junkcoin (JKE—how apt; rank 36), CraftCoin (CRC; rank 39), and Colossuscoin (COL; rank 40).*** Now, since this post is already incredibly long, instead of testing all 40 coins, let’s take a decently-sized sample of five coins each from the top, middle, and bottom of the stack, and look at what happens. For the middle, although the temptation is to take decent alts, let’s fight that and take the group with the highest failure rate: ranks 21-25. So, here’s out pool:
Top Five: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, Peercoin, and Namecoin
Middle Five: Yacoin, Tickets, Ixcoin, Copperlark, and Stablecoin (ranks 21-25)
Bottom Five: Junkcoin, Argentum, Elacoin, CraftCoin, and Colossuscoin (ranks 36-40)
Now, here are how our sample of coins has performed as of when I write this:****
Bitcoin: Up from $1,083.14 to $6,957.99—a ~6.42x increase
Litecoin: Up from $39.77 to $117.43—a ~2.95x increase
Ripple: Up from $0.047034 to $0.527721—an ~11.22x increase
Peercoin: Down from $7.58 to $1.62—a ~78.6% loss
Namecoin: Down from $9.94 to $1.52—an 84.7% loss
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our top-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth $411.80 (the profitable coins) + $3.06 (PPC) + $4.27 (NMC) = $419.13—a 4.19x increase. Now for the two coins in the middle five that didn’t completely die:
Yacoin: Down from $0.311704 to $0.001025—a ~99.7% loss (Note: Since a $20 investment would only be worth a little over six cents, I’m calling this a total loss)
Ixcoin: Down from $0.146275 to 0.111126—a ~24% loss
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our middle-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$15.19—an ~84.8% loss. Finally, here are the two coins from the bottom five that didn’t completely die:
Elacoin: Down from $10.95 to $0.212289—a ~98% loss (Note: since this is only worth about $0.39, I’m calling this a total loss)
Argentum: Down from $0.793038 to $0.117466—an ~85.2% loss.
So, excluding everything buy Argentum, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our bottom-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$2.96—a ~97% loss. Putting it all together, $300 invested in this sample of 15 coins as close to the peak of the 2013 market as the data will let me get, would be worth $429.95—a disappointing, but not-unexpected ~30.2% increase over five years. That said, I’m honestly somewhat amazed our FOMO trader made anything at all on this basket of coins, considering how many of them failed. In any case, all of his gains came from the top-three coins from 2013: Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple. Conclusions What’s the lesson here, what’s the takeaway?***** Most importantly, I think the above analysis shows that it can be very dangerous to buy alt-coins when the market is at or near an all-time high—a conclusion that appears to be true regardless of where the alt is positioned in the market. That said, there are a few caveats: (1) this sample was intentionally bad, in order to reflect a worst-case scenario; (2) even buying the top-three coins at the all-time high didn’t net our FOMO trader particularly large gains when compared to someone who bought these same coins after the crash. Therefore, I think that the most important lesson here is not to buy high in the first place. Investing solely because of FOMO will probably cause you to lose money, unless you have invested equally in a broad range of cryptocurrencies, like the trader in our hypothetical. Even then, however, our FOMO trader probably would have done better investing in an S&P Index fund over the same period. Endnotes *This is a correction to my earlier piece, in which I stated that the cryptocurrency market peaked on November 30, 2013, at a total market capitalization of ~$15.2 billion. I made this error due to having failed to narrow the date range of the chart so I could properly zoon in. That said, the exact details of the market peak don’t affect the conclusions from my last piece, which considered trades made after the market had bottomed out. ** …you do not talk about trading. Wait, that’s the wrong rulebook. *** Since I already typed it out, here’s the list of remaining active coins, in descending order: Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Peercoin (PPC), Namecoin (NMC), Megacoin (MEC), Feathercoin (FTC), WorldCoin (WDC), Primecoin (XPM), Freicoin (FRC), Novacoin (NVC), Zetacoin (ZET), Infinitecoin (IFC), Terracoin (TRC), Crypto Bullion (CBX), Anoncoin (ANC), Digitalcoin (DGC), GoldCoin (GLD), Yacoin (YAC), Ixcoin (IXC), Fastcoin (FST), BitBar (BTB), Mincoin (MNC), Tagcoin (TAG), FlorinCoin (FLO), I0Coin (I0C), Phoenixcoin (PXC), Argentum (ARG), Elacoin (ELC) **** I know that we could have sold them sooner, and probably for more money, but let’s just assume that our hypothetical FOMO trader was a founding member of the #hodlgang. ;-) ***** Don’t mess with Maui when he’s on a breakaway! You’re welcome. ;-) Disclosures: I have previous held Litecoin, and currently hold approximately $140 of Ripple. I do not believe this influenced my analysis in any way. I have never bought or held any of the other coins discussed in this analysis. Edits: Formatting, typos, minor clarifications.
The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer
By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast. Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos. I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back. Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate! Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous. BACKGROUND As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments. I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC! On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:
As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences. With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell? FUNDAMENTALS Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel. The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages. SECURITY The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed. At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied). This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m. This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000. Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day. Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage. When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin. These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way. With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!
SPECULATION For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers. Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good. A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect. Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand. There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg) (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg) And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage. According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not. For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin. Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you. In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away. RETAIL There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017. Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin. If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts. What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available. After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys. To do so, I highly recommendBitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware). WALL STREET There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017. LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization. The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures. The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon. By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable. This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets. THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg) Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset? BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit). But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk. Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B. And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography! This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen. Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity. To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png) TRANSACTIONS Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve. On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017. Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls? As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again. Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move. There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png) What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network. The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee. The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it. I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA. DEVELOPERS Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want. The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is. However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses. Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg) SETTLEMENT CURRENCY There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet. Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid. PRICE There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth. Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand. Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics! (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg) On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030. On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus." On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000". Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition. I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC. Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny. Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State. Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png) Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market. The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day. So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png) Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction. We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose? As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world. CONCLUSION Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017. The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled. The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon. While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright. Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do! But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here. Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts. Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go? After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it! What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
Bitcoin's Fatal Linkage To Fiat: The Number Of Bitcoin ATMs Has Now Climbed Above 5,500
http://www.cypherpunklabs.com/bitcoins-fatal-linkage-to-fiat-the-number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-now-climbed-above-5500/ Perhaps one of the fastest growing sectors of the cryptocurrency industry is Bitcoin ATMs. In November 2013 there was just a single Bitcoin ATM on the entire planet. It took until June 2014 for the number of ATMs to climb above 100, and in February 2017 this number climbed above 1,000. Since then ATMs have been installed at a rapid pace worldwide, and now the total number of Bitcoin ATMs has climbed above 5,500. Many people may look at this and say this is a good trend for Bitcoin adoption, but the reality is darker. The rise in Bitcoin ATMs is solid evidence of Bitcoin’s fatal linkage to fiat, a linkage which injects know your customer (KYC) regulations and centralization into the crypto space. First for the argument that the proliferation of Bitcoin ATMs is good. ATMs are useful for converting between fiat and Bitcoin, raising awareness about Bitcoin and making it easier for investors to buy Bitcoin, which should supposedly increase Bitcoin’s price and demand. Also, some may argue the ATMs increase Bitcoin’s use as a currency, since the ATMs allow people to quickly convert Bitcoin to cash if they need to buy food or pay rent. The truth is that Bitcoin ATMs are injecting heavy regulations and centralization into the crypto ecosystem. Anyone who uses a Bitcoin ATM generally has to turn over a full suite of identification information, including their photo ID, birthday, and social security number. This makes it so that Bitcoins purchased at an ATM can be directly linked to the individual that purchased them. Blockchain forensics, which is now a multi-million dollar industry, are then used to track how exactly these Bitcoins are used. In combination with the identification information collected at the ATM, the blockchain forensics can be used to build cases against users for illegal activity, such as if the Bitcoins enter a darknet market, or if the Bitcoins are used for money laundering and tax fraud. The worst part is that blockchain forensics can follow the Bitcoins many skips down the line, so that even if an ATM user did not illegally use the Bitcoins, they could still end up in hot water and have to divulge information to law enforcement to get out of trouble. Essentially, if Bitcoins are obtained at an ATM, and then those Bitcoins are used for anything illegal at some point in the future even if its long after the original purchaser spent them, the police at least have a lead with the person who got the Bitcoins from the ATM, and they can interrogate that person and try to find who the Bitcoins went to next and so forth. The same is true for selling Bitcoins at an ATM. Even if the Bitcoins were legally obtained, but originated from the deep web at some point, the person selling the Bitcoins could be in hot water. Another way to think of this is that Bitcoin ATMs are choking the Bitcoin economy, as well as cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase. Due to Bitcoin’s fatal link to fiat, Bitcoin users usually have no choice but to use an exchange or ATM to buy/sell, at which point all of their identification information is logged. This gives law enforcement and regulars an easy to use map of the entire crypto economy, with enough leads to blackmail everyone using Bitcoin, and ultimately the power to cripple Bitcoin and impose heavy regulations upon it. On a related note, the ease of using Bitcoin ATMs and exchanges in combination with regulations have destroyed the peer to peer Bitcoin dealing economy. It was far more decentralized and healthier back when there was an expansive network of individuals exchanging Bitcoin. Now the right to exchange Bitcoin has been centralized into the hands of ATM operators and exchanges who are more than happy to doxx their customers and pay millions for blockchain forensics to compromise their customer’s freedom. Quite literally, Bitcoin ATMs are poisoning Bitcoin from the inside. They are centralizing the crypto economy, making it easy to regulate, and making Bitcoin users highly dependent on fiat. Zooming out, as the number of Bitcoin ATMs has proliferated, the original dream of a decentralized peer to peer currency is decreasing. At this point Bitcoin is barely usable as a currency, there are some sites that accept it as well as a decreasing amount of individuals who exchange Bitcoin peer to peer. Generally people are forced to sell the Bitcoin for fiat if they are ever going to obtain value from it, turning Bitcoin into nothing more than another speculative asset like gold and stocks. Perhaps the dream of Bitcoin one day being a true currency is not totally dead, and maybe one day Bitcoin can be exchanged conveniently for goods and services in the mainstream. However, Bitcoin will have to integrate some serious changes to increase scalability and speed before that can happen, and if it does not happen soon enough this centralization trend will continue until Bitcoin has no potential to ever become an independent and decentralized currency.
A Couple of Notes on the 2013/14 Bubble VS. 2017 Bubble
I'm seeing a lot of posts comparing the 2017 Bubble to the 2013-14 Bubble. I think the comparisons are fair. However, many people are mixing up what happened in 2013-14 and the timeline. One of the most common mistakes I'm seeing is that the 2013-14 bubble popped due to Mt. Gox insolvency. That is false. The 2013-14 bubble was abrupt, even when compared to the 2017 bubble. The price skyrocketed from $200 USD to $1200 USD in one month. From November 1st to November 30th, BTC went up basically 6X. Back in 2013-14, there were basically two markets which were getting solid volume. BTC/USD and BTC/CNY. BTC/USD was mostly taking place on Mt. Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase, and BTC-e. BTC/CNY was mostly taking place on OKCoin and BTCChina. There was no Korea or Japan back then, which definitely played a major role in the recent bull market. And while Chinese exchanges were creating a lot of fake volume back in 2013-14 through 0% exchange fees, the fact was that China was leading the markets.  They consistently held a 10%+ premium over USD exchanges during the bull run. At the height of the bubble in China, before the PBOC stepped in with its clampdown on Bitcoin, China Telecom and Baidu announced support for Bitcoin. It was on the verge of literally replacing the CNY.  On November 30th, 2013, a rumor emerged that the PBOC (People's Bank of China / China Government) was about to crack down on Bitcoin. A mass panic ensued. The price crashed from $1200 USD to $780 USD. In one day. That's a 35% crash in a single day. However, the market quickly bounced back as people argued that these rumors were fabricated. However, this rebound was short lived. On December 5th, 2013, the PBOC made an official announcement. The government banned financial institutions from interacting with Bitcoin. They also clarified that products / services in China could not be priced in BTC (they must be priced in CNY). The markets went straight down on this news. From $1150 USD when it broke to $540 on December 7th. A 3 day drop of over 50%. Where was Mt. Gox in all this? They were chugging along, delaying fiat withdrawals. Bitcoin withdrawals were working fine. Deposits too. For much of November and December there was very little noise about Mt.Gox actually being insolvent. The overwhelming market sentiment on the matter was that their banks were being disrupted by the US Government investigations into Silkroad. This was true to a very mild extent. If you'd like to argue that people knew Mt. Gox was insolvent at the time of the 2013-14 bubble crash, I'd like to point out that Bitfinex basically had the exact same issues arise in 2017. Fiat withdrawals and deposits were basically turned off. Clearly Bitfinex was a different situation in hindsight (we hope!), but initially it was playing out just the same as Mt. Gox. The markets never really reacted to Bitfinex fiat issues, just as they didn't react to the Mt. Gox issues. There was so much money going through Mt. Gox that it had a Titanic feel to it. The majority of people bought their first BTC on Mt. Gox. The Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wlTsEFJ4-Reason-Behind-2013-14-Bitcoin-Bear-Market/ This chart outlines the dates of the key events in the 2013-14 bubble crash. The most significant event in the crash was absolutely the China ban. That is what kicked off the 2013-14 bubble crash, and it definitely had the most profound impact on price. While the Mt. Gox fiasco certainly did not help the markets, it's not the reason for the bubble and should not be quoted as the reason.  So in conclusion, when people are comparing the 2014 bubble with the 2017 bubble, it should be noted that they are very different. But not for the reasons most people assume. They are different because the 2014 bubble was almost entirely based on the Chinese market, and it was squashed by the PBOC themselves by imposing big regulations. Today, the markets are certainly more spread out and there are less single points of failure. There is no single event which turned the bull market to a bear market this time around, although I personally believe we ran out of gas this time around because of regulation in Korea and China.  https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/28/buyer-beware-bitcoins-fate-could-rest-with-china.html  https://www.coindesk.com/baidu-stops-bitcoin-price-slumps-again/  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox
In the near future, we'll see big green candles again:) What was the last time you took yourself away from bad news on CoinDesk or Cointelegraph and from 5M - 1H price charts on TradingView and simply opened a 1D chart and looked what was happening in the previous years between 2011-2015? - We believe you didn't We see so many people are nervous about cryptocurrency, they feel defeated because they didn't know simple rules of the economy which dictates that if there's a big price surge that happens fast, then it will fall at the same speed down. And then after it fell down, it takes years to recover, and it will be recovering as the living organism, slowly. And moreover, remember that market gets manipulated and it affects price too, so if you see another dip which lowers your portfolio by -20%, don't react but hodl. Wait until price recovers, because whales want to buy your bitcoin cheap. Don't sell like everyone did it in 2018. There's an interesting survey which CreditKarma made in November 2018, here you have the link to it: https://www.creditkarma.com/insights/i/investors-lost-1-7-billion-bitcoin-but-dont-plan-to-deduct/#methodology It says that Americans lost more than $1.7 bn, selling bitcoin in a desire to mitigate their losses. In fact, if no one didn't sell a single bitcoin out of those investors, then we wouldn't see the market crash. It worked like a domino, taking the price gradually down. So, it happened in 2013 as well, when the price for the Bitcoin has reached $1132 and then plunged to $230 in 2 years, and it took almost 5 years for Bitcoin to make another bull run. So there's a high chance that we we'll see the next bull run in 3-4 years from now. Here you can find the all-time price chart: https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/ And remember the story about Ronald Wayne, who sold 10% of Apple stocks in 1970 for only $800. In 2018 he could've earned around $100 billion. It took almost 50 years, but even in early 2000, he could make decent money out of it. So don't sell, HODL and be patient. Cheers! The RiseX Team.
CryptoNote v 2.0 Nicolas van Saberhagen October 17, 2013 1 Introduction “Bitcoin”  has been a successful implementation of the concept of p2p electronic cash. Both professionals and the general public have come to appreciate the convenient combination of public transactions and proof-of-work as a trust model. Today, the user base of electronic cash is growing at a steady pace; customers are attracted to low fees and the anonymity provided by electronic cash and merchants value its predicted and decentralized emission. Bitcoin has effectively proved that electronic cash can be as simple as paper money and as convenient as credit cards. Unfortunately, Bitcoin suffers from several deficiencies. For example, the system’s distributed nature is inflexible, preventing the implementation of new features until almost all of the net- work users update their clients. Some critical flaws that cannot be fixed rapidly deter Bitcoin’s widespread propagation. In such inflexible models, it is more efficient to roll-out a new project rather than perpetually fix the original project. In this paper, we study and propose solutions to the main deficiencies of Bitcoin. We believe that a system taking into account the solutions we propose will lead to a healthy competition among different electronic cash systems. We also propose our own electronic cash, “CryptoNote”, a name emphasizing the next breakthrough in electronic cash. 2 Bitcoin drawbacks and some possible solutions 2.1 Traceability of transactions Privacy and anonymity are the most important aspects of electronic cash. Peer-to-peer payments seek to be concealed from third party’s view, a distinct difference when compared with traditional banking. In particular, T. Okamoto and K. Ohta described six criteria of ideal electronic cash, which included “privacy: relationship between the user and his purchases must be untraceable by anyone” . From their description, we derived two properties which a fully anonymous electronic cash model must satisfy in order to comply with the requirements outlined by Okamoto and Ohta: Untraceability: for each incoming transaction all possible senders are equiprobable. Unlinkability: for any two outgoing transactions it is impossible to prove they were sent to the same person. Unfortunately, Bitcoin does not satisfy the untraceability requirement. Since all the trans- actions that take place between the network’s participants are public, any transaction can be unambiguously traced to a unique origin and final recipient. Even if two participants exchange funds in an indirect way, a properly engineered path-finding method will reveal the origin and final recipient. It is also suspected that Bitcoin does not satisfy the second property. Some researchers stated ([33, 35, 29, 31]) that a careful blockchain analysis may reveal a connection between the users of the Bitcoin network and their transactions. Although a number of methods are disputed , it is suspected that a lot of hidden personal information can be extracted from the public database. Bitcoin’s failure to satisfy the two properties outlined above leads us to conclude that it is not an anonymous but a pseudo-anonymous electronic cash system. Users were quick to develop solutions to circumvent this shortcoming. Two direct solutions were “laundering services”  and the development of distributed methods [3, 4]. Both solutions are based on the idea of mixing several public transactions and sending them through some intermediary address; which in turn suffers the drawback of requiring a trusted third party. Recently, a more creative scheme was proposed by I. Miers et al. : “Zerocoin”. Zerocoin utilizes a cryptographic one-way accumulators and zero-knoweldge proofs which permit users to “convert” bitcoins to zerocoins and spend them using anonymous proof of ownership instead of explicit public-key based digital signatures. However, such knowledge proofs have a constant but inconvenient size - about 30kb (based on today’s Bitcoin limits), which makes the proposal impractical. Authors admit that the protocol is unlikely to ever be accepted by the majority of Bitcoin users . 2.2 The proof-of-work function Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto described the majority decision making algorithm as “one- CPU-one-vote” and used a CPU-bound pricing function (double SHA-256) for his proof-of-work scheme. Since users vote for the single history of transactions order , the reasonableness and consistency of this process are critical conditions for the whole system. The security of this model suffers from two drawbacks. First, it requires 51% of the network’s mining power to be under the control of honest users. Secondly, the system’s progress (bug fixes, security fixes, etc...) require the overwhelming majority of users to support and agree to the changes (this occurs when the users update their wallet software) .Finally this same voting mechanism is also used for collective polls about implementation of some features . This permits us to conjecture the properties that must be satisfied by the proof-of-work pricing function. Such function must not enable a network participant to have a significant advantage over another participant; it requires a parity between common hardware and high cost of custom devices. From recent examples , we can see that the SHA-256 function used in the Bitcoin architecture does not posses this property as mining becomes more efficient on GPUs and ASIC devices when compared to high-end CPUs. Therefore, Bitcoin creates favourable conditions for a large gap between the voting power of participants as it violates the “one-CPU-one-vote” principle since GPU and ASIC owners posses a much larger voting power when compared with CPU owners. It is a classical example of the Pareto principle where 20% of a system’s participants control more than 80% of the votes. One could argue that such inequality is not relevant to the network’s security since it is not the small number of participants controlling the majority of the votes but the honesty of these participants that matters. However, such argument is somewhat flawed since it is rather the possibility of cheap specialized hardware appearing rather than the participants’ honesty which poses a threat. To demonstrate this, let us take the following example. Suppose a malevolent individual gains significant mining power by creating his own mining farm through the cheap hardware described previously. Suppose that the global hashrate decreases significantly, even for a moment, he can now use his mining power to fork the chain and double-spend. As we shall see later in this article, it is not unlikely for the previously described event to take place. 2.3 Irregular emission Bitcoin has a predetermined emission rate: each solved block produces a fixed amount of coins. Approximately every four years this reward is halved. The original intention was to create a limited smooth emission with exponential decay, but in fact we have a piecewise linear emission function whose breakpoints may cause problems to the Bitcoin infrastructure. When the breakpoint occurs, miners start to receive only half of the value of their previous reward. The absolute difference between 12.5 and 6.25 BTC (projected for the year 2020) may seem tolerable. However, when examining the 50 to 25 BTC drop that took place on November 28 2012, felt inappropriate for a significant number of members of the mining community. Figure 1 shows a dramatic decrease in the network’s hashrate in the end of November, exactly when the halving took place. This event could have been the perfect moment for the malevolent individual described in the proof-of-work function section to carry-out a double spending attack . Fig. 1. Bitcoin hashrate chart (source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be) 2.4 Hardcoded constants Bitcoin has many hard-coded limits, where some are natural elements of the original design (e.g. block frequency, maximum amount of money supply, number of confirmations) whereas other seem to be artificial constraints. It is not so much the limits, as the inability of quickly changing them if necessary that causes the main drawbacks. Unfortunately, it is hard to predict when the constants may need to be changed and replacing them may lead to terrible consequences. A good example of a hardcoded limit change leading to disastrous consequences is the block size limit set to 250kb1. This limit was sufficient to hold about 10000 standard transactions. In early 2013, this limit had almost been reached and an agreement was reached to increase the limit. The change was implemented in wallet version 0.8 and ended with a 24-blocks chain split and a successful double-spend attack . While the bug was not in the Bitcoin protocol, but rather in the database engine it could have been easily caught by a simple stress test if there was no artificially introduced block size limit. Constants also act as a form of centralization point. Despite the peer-to-peer nature of Bitcoin, an overwhelming majority of nodes use the official reference client  developed by a small group of people. This group makes the decision to implement changes to the protocol and most people accept these changes irrespective of their “correctness”. Some decisions caused heated discussions and even calls for boycott , which indicates that the community and the developers may disagree on some important points. It therefore seems logical to have a protocol with user-configurable and self-adjusting variables as a possible way to avoid these problems. 2.5 Bulky scripts The scripting system in Bitcoin is a heavy and complex feature. It potentially allows one to create sophisticated transactions , but some of its features are disabled due to security concerns and some have never even been used . The script (including both senders’ and receivers’ parts) for the most popular transaction in Bitcoin looks like this: OP DUP OP HASH160 OP EQUALVERIFY OP CHECKSIG. The script is 164 bytes long whereas its only purpose is to check if the receiver possess the secret key required to verify his signature. Read the rest of the white paper here: https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf
The mysterious Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto was a real genius, as he came up with a rather smart solution to maybe the most important problem of any currency - inflation. The current Bitcoin rate inflation is 4% per year, while the US dollar 1,91%, the Indian rupee 5,24%, the Russian ruble 4,33%, etc. However, Bitcoin inflation will continue to decrease until it reaches 0% in 2140. To begin with, the Bitcoins issue is limited, in total, 21 million coins will be issued. As you know, Bitcoins are not issued by any single centralized authority - they are mined. And by analogy with precious metals, the mining complexity will constantly increase, while the reward for the work done will decrease. The whole thing is the correct implementation of source code, as well as the so-called halving, which means that the miners get half as many coins every four years. Thus, by rough estimates, the last Bitcoin will be mined in May 2140.
What is halving and how does it work?
To explain what halving is, let's first understand how Bitcoin works. So, this digital coin is based on blockchain technology, which is a decentralized data accounting book, exact copies of which are located on miner computers around the world. As you know, each book consists of pages, in our case these are blocks. Each block has its own unique serial number. Miners solve complex mathematical equations to form a new block and receive a reward in the form of coins for the work done. The size of this reward is halved every 210 thousand blocks. Considering that about 144 blocks are mined per day, this event occurs approximately once every four years. This is what is called halving. The short Bitcoin history includes two halvings:
11/28/2012 the reward for the found block was reduced from 50 to 25 BTC.
07/09/2016 the award halved again from 25 to 12.5 coins.
The next halving should happen on May 23, 2020, then the reward will again decrease by half and amount to 6.25 BTC.
A brief analysis of the first halving
On the day when the first decrease in the reward for the found block happened, the BTC rate showed a slight movement - the price increased by only 1.7%. But if you look at the big picture, you can see that the asset began to grow several months before this event, and just continued to move up after halving. Thus, the BTC rate increased from 13 to 260 US dollars in just four months. https://preview.redd.it/89x4xdmvcqq31.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=af38bb2957a876c9f447b411db7a7e09d5ea21bc This was followed by a rollback in price up to $80, but later a real bull race started and lasted until December 2013. At that time, the asset grew to unimaginable values, its rate reached the level of 1150 US dollars. Well, and of course, after such an increase, a tight correction of the price and a protracted bear market followed. Pay attention to the complexity of the Bitcoin network during this event. The chart below shows, that the hash rate began to increase rapidly a few months before the halving, and the growth did not stop after it. https://preview.redd.it/ljb35j7xcqq31.png?width=1335&format=png&auto=webp&s=f61f7a35294d500163e495370c8ece9fd27d68f5
A brief analysis of the second halving
The second halving occurred in less than four years - on July 9, 2016. This time, the reward for miners fell to 12.5 BTC. It is important to note that the time between the first and second halvings was 1316 days or 3.6 years. Moreover, if to analyze the data, you can see that the market started an upward movement about 9 months before the event. During this period, the BTC rate rose by 112%, and after the Bitcoin halving, it continued to grow till December 2017 and stopped at around $20,000 per coin. We can also see how the hash rate increased against the background of the second halving. The chart below shows that the complexity of the Bitcoin network throughout the bear market in 2014-2015 was about the same value, but this figure began to grow rapidly about six months before the halving. https://preview.redd.it/wylqu1wycqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a84acd976f6ae945c390615797234e20473fecaf Therefore, the miners' interest in Bitcoin has grown significantly a few months before the event. And just like the previous time, the hash rate of the network continued to grow after halving.
In the run-up to of the third halving
As we all remember, a rather encouraging 2018 followed the euphoria of 2017, and the rates of all coins fell down to 90% of their peak values. According to technical indicators and the general mood in the market, we can say that the bear flag lasted until April 2, 2019. On this day, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose from $4,100 to almost $5,000, then an upward movement began. Note that this happened 13 months before the upcoming halving. Further, the BTC rate continued to grow rapidly and reached the level of $14,000 at the end of June, followed by a rollback and the price held at around $10,000 for a long time. But on September 24, 2019, there was a fairly powerful price drop, the rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day, and at the time of this writing, the market price of one BTC coin is $8,200. Note that the resumption of BTC growth this year was again accompanied by a significant increase in the hash rate. The complexity of the network from April to September has more than doubled, and it continues to increase. https://preview.redd.it/dnivyfm0dqq31.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=29c3ecbce63bfed760c0c98af0e2db5948a456d3
How will halving 2020 affect the price?
Many market participants are wondering how will the third halving affect the market situation? Unfortunately, we can’t know the future, we can only analyze the current situation, compare it with historical data and draw certain conclusions. In this article, we take the theories of two famous traders - Bob Lucas and Sunny Decree. They both analyzed in detail previous halving and made their forecasts regarding the market reaction to the next halving.
Sunny Decree Theory
He believes that the expectation of a halving will lead to Bitcoin price rise, as it was in previous times. He uses the BLX index to confirm this theory - this is the most complete history of the BTC price on the Internet, this is data actually from its very foundation. The first cycle until November 2012 (before the first halving) is not so important for us since at that time Bitcoin was still a fairly new concept. Almost no one knew about its existence, and there were not many exchanges where it could be traded. However, we can use the second cycle as a projection for the third, in which we are now. The key role in the formation of new cycles is not in the reduction of inflation itself (that is, the Bitcoin halving), but trading activity in anticipation of it. https://preview.redd.it/4kczz6a2dqq31.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0734155c3af4755935bcb052572585a124128f6 Each of these cycles can be divided into several phases:
The first phase, which is not highlighted in color, is the bull market when the price forms a parabolic upward movement and market participants are in euphoria
The second phase is highlighted in red - it is a bear market that afflicts traders and most investors.
The third phase is highlighted in orange - it is an accumulation that begins after reaching the bottom.
The fourth phase is marked in yellow - this is a parabolic movement after accumulation, which occurred throughout all three cycles.
The fifth phase is highlighted in gray - this is the continuation of accumulation until halving and a new bull rally.
It to look attentively at the current cycle (that is, the third) we can see:
the first phase is a bullish trend up to $20,000.
the second phase is a drop to $3200.
the third phase is flat, which did not differ in increased volatility, at that moment the whales accumulated coins.
the fourth phase - a sharp increase, up to $14,000.
the fifth phase - a new correction to $8,200 and the continued accumulation of assets.
This theory tells us about the continuation of accumulation until the next halving in May 2020, which should be followed by a new bullish trend. Now let's move on to the price forecast. The difference between the high of the first and second cycle is about 3600%, between the second and third - 1600-1700%. That is, each time the profit as a percentage goes down, so the third cycle was approximately half weaker than the second. As a result, according to Sunny Decree's theory, projecting the estimated percentage of growth proportionally, we can expect that the next BTC high will be at around $185,000. Using the structure of the third cycle, we can suggest that the peak of the bull market will happen in the summer of 2021.
Bob Lucas theory
Next, let's look at the theory of professional trader Bob Lucas. He analyzes the so-called cycles. In his opinion, the last four-year cycle (which contained 52 weeks in the drop and 153 weeks in growth) came to its end, it took 205 weeks in total. Bob Lucas believes that the price we saw on December 10, 2018, was the end of this cycle. It is important to understand that the video in which he tells this theory in detail appeared on his channel on April 2, 2019 - on the very day when the market began to grow, so six months later we can notice that he was right in many ways, but not in everything. So, Bob Lucas says in his video that at the beginning of a new cycle we will see the incredible power that will rapidly push the price to new levels. Lucas noted that at the time of recording the video, a lot of people are beginning to actively buy BTC in hope on rapid growth. He believed that in April the market was not yet at the stage of the final bull race. He said that there will be growing up to plus or minus $6,000 in the near future, followed by a tough correction that will unsettle many weak investors. In his opinion, during this correction, the price may even update the December bottom, and only after that, a new cycle will begin, which will last about 150 weeks in growth. As for the final price, he does not have a specific figure, but he believes that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will be more than 100 thousand US dollars. He stated that a hard correction should happen around August 2019, but in fact, it did not happen. Even though he made a mistake with the time frame and the estimated rate of BTC, he predicted the vector of the development of the situation quite correctly. Recent events are an excellent confirmation of this when on September 24, 2019, the BTC rate fell by $1,500 in less than a day. It was the correction Bob Lucas spoke about, but it happened a month later than he expected. Yes, it`s not likely that the rate falls to $3,000, but in current conditions, it is quite realistic to imagine a BTC rate of $6,000. Indeed, many analysts and experts agree that the “bloody Tuesday”, September 24th was not the final fall, it caused the next phase of accumulation of assets, which will take some time.
Neironix research department opinion
Let's drop someone else’s opinion and do what professional investors usually do - just take the facts we have and analyze them with a cold head.
If to take a look at the BTC chart for its entire history, you can see certain patterns that have been repeated in a cyclic form several times.
These cycles are conditionally divided by halvings, according to the principle of one halving - one parabolic growth.
Even after shocking price kickbacks, the BTC rate never again fell to the values that were before the start of the parabolic growth.
Each subsequent halving increases the cost of mining BTC, which plays an important role in increasing the value of the coin.
Bitcoin Halving 2020 is a very hype event, so in any case, this will affect the price.
Can we predict the future based on this? Of course, we cannot know for sure what surprises the cryptocurrency market is preparing for us. But no doubt that the cryptocurrency market, moreover Bitcoin, has great prospects. Bitcoin should be considered only as a long-term asset, which has always shown huge returns for a long period of time. But it is important to understand that this article is not a guide to action since the digital coin market is quite unpredictable and it is a rather difficult task to foretell any outcome in advance. Do not invest in cryptocurrencies more than you can afford to lose. If you spend more money than you can effort, then you will not be able to think rationally and survive often storms in this young market. Treat your investments with a cold mind, and then you will succeed.
Bitcoin has already survived two halvings during its short history, and in less than nine months, we will see another decrease in the reward for miners. If you carefully study the charts, you can see that the BTC rate always grows before the halving. And after it, the market goes into a phase of parabolic growth, it lasts about a year, and then comes the correction and a protracted bear market. A similar scenario has already been repeated twice and many traders believe that we will see a similar picture in the future, since the next halving should take place in May 2020. We observed a significant increase in the hash rate, the number of wallets, transactions and an increase in the rate of the main cryptocurrency 13 months before this event. Earlier that we carried a detailed analysis of the current state of the Litecoin cryptocurrency, and also analyzed its behavior against the background of the recent halving that took place on August 5, 2019. If you are interested in this topic, here is a link to our study.
On May 10-11, 2011 Bitcoin fell from $6 to $4.60. That represents a 23% drop. When you zoom out the drop looks fairly insignificant. On March 6-7, 2013 Bitcoin dropped from $50 to $35. A 30% drop. However, if you zoom out it just looks like a hiccup. If you zoom out even further it's hard to even see it all. On March 23, 2013 it dropped from $70 to $53. A 24% drop. Again, if you zoom out, it's hard to even see. On April 3, 2013 it dropped from $145 to $111. A 23% drop. Zoom out. Moving forward to the latter bubble of 2013... On October 2, 2013 Bitcoin fell from $127 to $86. This is a 32% drop. It coincided with the Silk Road shutdown. Zoom out and it looks like a hiccup. Zoom out further and you can't see it at all. On November 9-10, 2013 Bitcoin dropped from $360 to $270. A 25% drop. Zoom out, looks minor. Zoom out further, looks very minor. On November 19-20, 2013 Bitcoin fell from $750 to $450. That's a 40% drop. Granted, that one is still pretty noticeable when you zoom out. Now moving forward to the growth we've seen this year... On January 6-7, 2017 it dropped from $1140 to $750. A 34.2% drop. When you zoom out, it's not much to speak of. On March 10, 2017, Bitcoin dropped from $1350 to $975, representing a 27.8% drop. This was the date of the SEC's Winklevoss ETF decision. If it weren't for the volume candle, this day doesn't seem all that noteworthy after zooming out. On May 25-27, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $2760 to $1850, which is a 33% drop. We subsequently made new all-time-highs. Bitcoin just experienced a 25.1% drop, and I like to post these reminders every now and then when these sorts of movements happen, to remind everyone to keep your perspective in check. There is no way to know whether this drop is a bear trap until after-the-fact, when it will be obvious, but be careful shorting this or assuming that the growth is over just because of this drop.
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.
The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system. At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins. The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.
In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA. As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things. The two pizzas bought by Laszlo In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.
BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars. The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.
In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.
February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC. On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road. Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition. But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013
During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency. Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.
At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.
In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.
The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars. How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:
In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.
However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.
During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.
What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true. There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:
Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.
As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂
Bitcoin Auto Robot Update 29 Oct 2013; Bitcoin Growth Is Sigmoidal 19 November 2013; Bitcoin Has the Potential to Change the World; Bitcoin Robot Makes 160% Profit in 85 days; BTC China is world’s top Bitcoin Exchange; BTC Robot Is A Winner; BTC Robot Makes 110% in 77 Days; BTC Robot News Update 26 November 2013 Here is the chart of Bitcoin. Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation… If this were one of those tests you took in grade school where they ask you what’s next in this pattern, you would say Breakout and then Uptrend right? Yea that’s what I’m gonna go with. It hasn’t done much since breaking out above 10,000. But if we’re above that ... If Bitcoin is below the 2013 highs, then the market is suggesting that the demand has NOT absorbed all of that overhead supply, and therefore a long position makes little sense. So from a risk management standpoint, I’ve made it clear to our clients since last month that we want to be long only if we’re above the late 2013 highs. The upside objective here is near 1630, which represents the ... This man threw away his hard drive containing 7000 bitcoins Charts providing a snapshot of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ecosystem
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