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Gridcoin 5.0.0.0-Mandatory "Fern" Release

https://github.com/gridcoin-community/Gridcoin-Research/releases/tag/5.0.0.0
Finally! After over ten months of development and testing, "Fern" has arrived! This is a whopper. 240 pull requests merged. Essentially a complete rewrite that was started with the scraper (the "neural net" rewrite) in "Denise" has now been completed. Practically the ENTIRE Gridcoin specific codebase resting on top of the vanilla Bitcoin/Peercoin/Blackcoin vanilla PoS code has been rewritten. This removes the team requirement at last (see below), although there are many other important improvements besides that.
Fern was a monumental undertaking. We had to encode all of the old rules active for the v10 block protocol in new code and ensure that the new code was 100% compatible. This had to be done in such a way as to clear out all of the old spaghetti and ring-fence it with tightly controlled class implementations. We then wrote an entirely new, simplified ruleset for research rewards and reengineered contracts (which includes beacon management, polls, and voting) using properly classed code. The fundamentals of Gridcoin with this release are now on a very sound and maintainable footing, and the developers believe the codebase as updated here will serve as the fundamental basis for Gridcoin's future roadmap.
We have been testing this for MONTHS on testnet in various stages. The v10 (legacy) compatibility code has been running on testnet continuously as it was developed to ensure compatibility with existing nodes. During the last few months, we have done two private testnet forks and then the full public testnet testing for v11 code (the new protocol which is what Fern implements). The developers have also been running non-staking "sentinel" nodes on mainnet with this code to verify that the consensus rules are problem-free for the legacy compatibility code on the broader mainnet. We believe this amount of testing is going to result in a smooth rollout.
Given the amount of changes in Fern, I am presenting TWO changelogs below. One is high level, which summarizes the most significant changes in the protocol. The second changelog is the detailed one in the usual format, and gives you an inkling of the size of this release.

Highlights

Protocol

Note that the protocol changes will not become active until we cross the hard-fork transition height to v11, which has been set at 2053000. Given current average block spacing, this should happen around October 4, about one month from now.
Note that to get all of the beacons in the network on the new protocol, we are requiring ALL beacons to be validated. A two week (14 day) grace period is provided by the code, starting at the time of the transition height, for people currently holding a beacon to validate the beacon and prevent it from expiring. That means that EVERY CRUNCHER must advertise and validate their beacon AFTER the v11 transition (around Oct 4th) and BEFORE October 18th (or more precisely, 14 days from the actual date of the v11 transition). If you do not advertise and validate your beacon by this time, your beacon will expire and you will stop earning research rewards until you advertise and validate a new beacon. This process has been made much easier by a brand new beacon "wizard" that helps manage beacon advertisements and renewals. Once a beacon has been validated and is a v11 protocol beacon, the normal 180 day expiration rules apply. Note, however, that the 180 day expiration on research rewards has been removed with the Fern update. This means that while your beacon might expire after 180 days, your earned research rewards will be retained and can be claimed by advertising a beacon with the same CPID and going through the validation process again. In other words, you do not lose any earned research rewards if you do not stake a block within 180 days and keep your beacon up-to-date.
The transition height is also when the team requirement will be relaxed for the network.

GUI

Besides the beacon wizard, there are a number of improvements to the GUI, including new UI transaction types (and icons) for staking the superblock, sidestake sends, beacon advertisement, voting, poll creation, and transactions with a message. The main screen has been revamped with a better summary section, and better status icons. Several changes under the hood have improved GUI performance. And finally, the diagnostics have been revamped.

Blockchain

The wallet sync speed has been DRASTICALLY improved. A decent machine with a good network connection should be able to sync the entire mainnet blockchain in less than 4 hours. A fast machine with a really fast network connection and a good SSD can do it in about 2.5 hours. One of our goals was to reduce or eliminate the reliance on snapshots for mainnet, and I think we have accomplished that goal with the new sync speed. We have also streamlined the in-memory structures for the blockchain which shaves some memory use.
There are so many goodies here it is hard to summarize them all.
I would like to thank all of the contributors to this release, but especially thank @cyrossignol, whose incredible contributions formed the backbone of this release. I would also like to pay special thanks to @barton2526, @caraka, and @Quezacoatl1, who tirelessly helped during the testing and polishing phase on testnet with testing and repeated builds for all architectures.
The developers are proud to present this release to the community and we believe this represents the starting point for a true renaissance for Gridcoin!

Summary Changelog

Accrual

Changed

Most significantly, nodes calculate research rewards directly from the magnitudes in EACH superblock between stakes instead of using a two- or three- point average based on a CPID's current magnitude and the magnitude for the CPID when it last staked. For those long-timers in the community, this has been referred to as "Superblock Windows," and was first done in proof-of-concept form by @denravonska.

Removed

Beacons

Added

Changed

Removed

Unaltered

As a reminder:

Superblocks

Added

Changed

Removed

Voting

Added

Changed

Removed

Detailed Changelog

[5.0.0.0] 2020-09-03, mandatory, "Fern"

Added

Changed

Removed

Fixed

submitted by jamescowens to gridcoin [link] [comments]

The One Thing EVERYONE Must Know About the Dev Funding Plan: IT'S COMPLETELY FREE.

sigh I get so tired of having to stop working to put out a post explaining issues. If anyone else wants to join in I could use help. (actually I've seen Jonald F. do this before too, so thanks JF!)
Things are bad when even developers don't understand what's going on. So I'll try to clearly explain an important point on the Dev Funding Plan (DFP from now on) for the community: it's completely free. Yet we still get panicked posts saying Please Save Us from the TAX!!! Somebody Help!
You may be for or against the DFP, but either way please at least understand what you're forming an opinion on.
Let's start from the beginning. We know Bitcoin works on blocks and block coin rewards. The block reward, which started at 50 coins per block, and cuts in half approximately every 4 years, serves two purposes: it's a fair way to bring coins into circulation, but more importantly it provides security for the network.
For simplicity, please think of "security" as being measured in power bars. When the network first started, with just Satoshi and Hal Finney, there was 1 power bar. This power bar was made up of the electricity their combined computer hardware used to find blocks. They were the first miners. Bitcoin uses a difficulty level to adjust how hard or easy it is to find blocks. This level is important for a key reason: we want the inflation rate of coins (how fast they come into circulation) to stay about the same, regardless how many miners (computing power) suddenly comes online. If the difficulty is set at super easy, but suddenly a super computer comes online that computer can gobble up thousands of coins in minutes if not seconds, creating massive rapid inflation. So the first thing to understand is that due to the Difficulty Level Adjustment the rate of coins coming into circulation will always stay about the same, regardless how many miners join or leave the network.
Getting back to power bars. So the point of Bitcoin is there is no center, no fixed authority. The problem is we still need a decision made about which chain is valid. This is where proof-of-work comes in. Satoshi's fairly brilliant solution to a consensus decision, with no leader, was to simply look for the longest chain (technically the chain with most hashing work). The reasoning was: as there are far more ordinary people than there are governments and dictators a Bitcoin supported by the all the world's people should always be able to muster more hashrate than even rich governments.
So Bitcoin began and people saw the brilliance: even with a weak power bar level of 1 (a couple computers), Bitcoin was safe from 51% attacks and attacking govs competing for control of the chain because a super low hashrate meant Bitcoin wasn't popular and govs wouldn't bother paying attention. By the time Bitcoin was big enough for govs to worry about attacking it should also have so many participants the power bar level would be far higher, providing strong defense.
Let's say the ideal power bar level is 50,000. At this level no government on earth has enough resources to beat the grassroots network. We hear people brag about how much security BTC has. However, the marketcap for all of BTC is about $160B. Countries like the U.S. and China have GDP measured in many trillions; a trillion is 1,000 billion. Does 160B really seem untouchable? For numeric comparison the main U.S. federal food assistance program cost the government $70B in 2016, representing about 2% of the budget. So the entirety of the BTC market cap is about twice the size of one welfare program, representing 2% of the overall budget. Where should we place the current security power bars if we want guaranteed safety from a determined U.S. gov? If 50,000 is guaranteed safe we're far from it. I'd say BTC is more like 5,000. That's still pretty decent.
Of course, BCH split from BTC... and didn't carry over all the miners and accompanying security. That's not an immediate concern because if BTC isn't on government's radar yet BCH sure isn't. However, that doesn't mean BCH doesn't need security from hostile forces. It's still a valuable network and needs defenses. Where would we put power bars for BCH? If BTC is 5,000 and BCH only has 3% of that hashrate then BCH has just 150. That's it.
How the Developer Funding Plan Works
Back to the DFP. What this says is as a community we agree to break off a piece of the block reward and instead of giving 100% to miners we give a small percent to developers. If each block is 10 coins and the price is $300 then winning a block means winning $3,000. Of course that's not all profit because miners have electricity and other expenses to pay before calculating profit. So if we reduce the portion of the miner reward by 10% so they get just 9 coins per block yet the price stays the same what happens? It means miners receive $2,700 for the same effort. We've just made it more expensive to mine BCH from the point of view of miners. What would any miner then rationally do? Seek profitability elsewhere if available. Suddenly BTC SHA256 hashing looks slightly more attractive so they'll go there. Hashrate leaves BCH and goes to BTC, but the key important point is BOTH chains have a difficulty adjustment algorithm which adjusts to account for rising or lowering miners overall, which keeps the coin inflation rate steady. This means BTC total hashrate rises (more miners compete for BTC) and its Difficulty Level rises accordingly, so the same rate of BTC pumps out; on BCH total hashrate falls (less miners compete for BCH) and its Difficulty falls, so the same rate of BCH pumps out. Inflation remains about the same on both coins so the price of both coins doesn't change any, beyond what it normally does based on news/events etc.
So what difference is there? The difference is total network security. Hashrate totals have changed. BTC gains more miner securing hashrate while BCH loses it. So BTC goes from 5,000 to say 5,100 power bars. BCH goes from about 150 to 140.
Does any of that matter in the grand scheme of things? Not in the slightest. Part of the reason is due to our emergency circumstances with BCH we had to rework our security model. Our primary defense is an idea I came up with, which BitcoinABC implemented, saying it's not sheer hashpower that dictates what chain we follow. We won't replace a chain we're working on if a new one suddenly appears if it means changing more than 10 blocks deep of history. This prevents all the threatening hashrate hanging over our heads from mining a secret chain and creating havoc unleashing it causing 10+ confimed txs to be undone, while exchanges, gambling sites etc. have long since paid out real world money.
Switching $6M worth of block rewards from mining to devs just means we lose a bit of hashrate security, while we gain those funds for development. Nothing more. Nobody holding BCH pays in the form of inflation or any other way. It costs literally NOTHING BECAUSE The block reward is ALREADY ALLOCATED. It will EITHER go 100% to mining security if we do nothing, or go to both miners and devs if the plan is put into effect. Hopefully this helps.
:)
TL;DR: we switch security which we don't really need, for developer funding which we do.
submitted by cryptos4pz to btc [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Tinfoil hat time... Don't take seriously, or do I guess. Whatever, I'm not your mother. This would make for a great story though.

The creator of the game, "Plague Inc" was interviewed for a CDC blog post from 2013.
How did you ensure it was a realistic game?
Without a medical background, I did a lot of online research in order to make sure it felt realistic to players. Luckily, I have always been very interested in biology as well as economics and current affairs. This helped a lot when I was building the algorithms and models inside the game. A critical stage in the game is the ‘Infection Cycle’ that dictates how people become infected with a disease and how they infect others. The game revolves around this stage, and I spent months making sure that it worked properly. The core design is based on the concept of ‘basic reproduction rate’ and I found lots of great papers online which taught me more about it.
What kind of audience does Plague Inc. reach and what do they get from it?
Plague Inc. has been downloaded over 10 million times worldwide and over 200 million games have been played to date. As an intelligent and sophisticated strategy game, I think Plague Inc. appeals to people looking for something more meaningful and substantial than the majority of mobile games. It makes people think about infectious disease in a new light – helping them realize the threats that we face every day.
Were players of Plague Inc. interested to know you had been invited to the CDC?
Yes, the reaction to the news has been extremely positive and people are keen to know more! In the first 24 hours after I announced my visit to the CDC almost 1 million people had seen tweets about it! I think people were excited to see that a prestigious organization like the CDC was interested in the game. A lot of people also hoped that visiting the CDC would give me ideas for future updates of the game (which it did!)
What did you learn at CDC?
It was fascinating to meet the people who are working hard every day to keep us safe from the type of threats that Plague Inc. features. I got a tour of the Emergency Operations Center and Broadcast Center, as well as a trip to the CDC museum. This gave me a lot of contextual information about how the CDC works, which will help me add a greater level of realism to the game in the future – especially in terms of how humanity reacts to outbreaks.
What are you working on now and what do you have coming out next?
Plague Inc. is still proving to be an incredibly popular game, so my main focus must be to keep improving the game and adding new content for players. Recently, I released an update that added a zombie-themed plague, as well as translating the game into four other languages. In the next update, I will be adding a new game mode for players, translating it into Japanese/Korean and hopefully adding some CDC content!
From this, we see that even before He went to the CDC over 200 million games had been played, and in the last 7 years, who knows how many more. Since 2013 he has taken highly detailed actual infectious disease data and implemented it into the game.
So at this point, we can assume that Plague Inc. It is a REALISTIC simulation, at least to a certain degree. Adding to this we know that hundreds of millions of simulations have been run. These simulations feature real-world decisions being made, realistic public events, and real sociological changes and variables. Even assuming the worst possible accuracy of the data(remember, companies like Twitter, Google, Facebook have no less than Ten Thousand data points on every US Citizen.), given enough time, a sufficiently robust deep learning AI can optimize this data to an extreme degree.
Let’s also assume that in addition to these PLAYER driven simulations, several AI-controlled simulations have been run as well. Not necessarily with Plague Inc.’s engine, but with Pandemic researchers. With this much data, it just makes sense that at some point this game would be able to not only model the “perfect virus” in order to infect a specific amount of people and cause a specific amount of symptoms. In addition, if the game uses actual virus genomics data, it could even, given enough time, develop the recipe to create this virus for us.
This isn’t even the extent of this AI possibility. Narrow, data-driven AIs are capable of crunching an obscene amount of data. And if you feed in the right data (GPS movements, Spending Habits, public reactions to public events and news stories, hell, I’m even sure memes could be effectively factored into these algorithms) these systems could very easily be linked together into a massive simulation that factors in and predicts all sorts of “likely eventualities”.
Brexit, Trump, Sanders, China, are all great examples of events that have an almost limitless amount of data points on the internet, all categorized by companies like Cambridge Analytica. Not only your reaction to the specific stimulus, but what you do after you've reacted to the stimulus, and how you react to that next stimulus, and so on and so on Ad Infinitum. Not to mention all the quizzes you’ve been filling out on Facebook, your Instagram account, your Spotify, your Tinder likes and dislikes and matches, YouTube and Pornhub browsing data all get fed into these systems. Ever wonder why Facebook and Amazon are making so much money? We can CLEARLY see that Billionaires run the world and can do ANYTHING they want right in front of us and they face ZERO consequences. Epstein didn't kill himself proved this. And Panama paper before that.
Hell Reddit accounts are the worst of the worst. Every time we upvote a meme, we are running calculations for these algorithms. We have become processing power for these AI Overlords. We willingly provide these companies with all of the data they need, they give us free smartphones and we welcome and integrate them into our daily lives. They listen to our conversations, and we are told that it is just for the mass aggregate data and that nobody actually listens to them. Humans don't listen to them, but Deep Learning Neural Nets certainly do. but forget about all the AI systems for a second. Collectively, the entire internet-connected totality of the human race is an actual computer.
If you think about how we all interact with each other in a single day, we can assume that most interactions function almost exactly like a math problem, just with a seemingly infinite amount of variables. Impossible to know that you said an innocuous thing that triggered the lady sitting next to you in some way that she was in a shitty mood for the rest of the day and ended up impulse buying $30 in lottery tickets. She was extremely rude to several people that day and acted like a typical "Karen" about it. All of this made a total of twenty-six people post funny statuses on Facebook or tweeted about her, which all were, to some varying degree of engagement, responded to and liked and emojied about. not to mention all the other interactions that took place in all that. Even if these AI algorithms miss seventy-five percent of all that sensory data and causal reasoning, we still make computations on that based on our own actions. The next time that lady sees that man in the coffee shop, she might remember the time she had a shitty day because of him. Then she iterates the loop again, adding more data to the pile... This process will inevitably guide not only each individual person to their own predictable outcomes, but humanity as a whole will eventually lead to some almost unavoidable outcome. We are a Neural Net running constantly. Our entire human race is working out calculations, and the interconnectedness of the world wide web has increased our processing power to effectively infinite levels. You know in "A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" where they make a computer that is as big as a planet, well, we ARE that computer. (a better example, in my opinion, is found in the book "Children of Time" where spoiler alert: A semi-sentient hivemind race of ants get turned into an actual computer that an uploaded human mind that became part of a possible already conscious AI system eventually gets transferred to where it becomes a sentient human/AI Hybrid spaceship made of ants piloted by a semi-symbiotic sentient Spider Human Alliance)
When asked how much data is on the internet, Google says:
"One way to answer this question is to consider the sum total of data held by all the big online storage and service companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook. Estimates are that the big four store at least 1,200 petabytes between them. That is 1.2 million terabytes (one terabyte is 1,000 gigabytes)."
That is 1.2 billion gigabytes. Just to put this into perspective, let's say your phone has 512GB, for every Gig of data you have on your phone, these companies have 2,343,750GB... or put another way... for every megabyte you have, these companies have 2,343.75 Gigs of data. We all create all the data they need to do pretty much anything conceivable given enough computing power.
Speaking of us collectively being a massive computing system... Do you know what else does an unfathomable amount of calculations per second? You, you guessed it, Bitcoin. Across all of the Bitcoin network, mining could easily be doing billions of calculations every second.
from bitcoinmining.com ”With Bitcoin, miners use special software to solve math problems and are issued a certain number of bitcoins in exchange. This provides a smart way to issue the currency and also creates an incentive for more people to mine.”
What math problems could these be working on? Without being able to look at the entirety of the math problems being worked out, it would be impossible to tell what they are working on. But imagine if these AI systems could distribute these ENORMOUSLY massive simulations on every single computer that is mining bitcoins, I think there would be enough data processing power do run something massive. Add in all the other Crypto mining and, well that's a lot of math. They aren't just doing your standard Multiplication tables either.
In conclusion, we absolutely are living in a simulation, just not how you think. There very well could be an extremely large number of simulations running, using REAL WORLD data to create predictive algorithms to not only predict outcomes but MANAGE them. i.e. what Cambridge Analytica did with Brexit and Trump. We know that this happened, and if that is possible, imagine what else could be possible to manufacture? One man can build a log cabin in ten days, ten men can build a log cabin in one day. And one computer can do a lot more math than ten people can...
TL;DR: Billionaires control the world using AI, and we are the operating system. We already live in the matrix, and it is too late to change anything about that.
GG no RE
submitted by LynxSys to China_Flu [link] [comments]

Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work

Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work
Bitcoin options are breaking records, and exchanges are competing for this segment. We will tell you what these tools are and how they work
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, integrating with the traditional and inheriting complex financial products such as futures and options.
Some types of fixed-term contracts are already firmly established in the bitcoin industry. This is noticeable by the activity of traders on the CME.
However, the situation with options is somewhat different. These derivatives are difficult to understand among ordinary market participants and are not yet so popular.
Nevertheless, there is a demand for such tools, as evidenced by the growth dynamics of this market segment and interest from platforms such as Binance and Bitfinex.
Bitcoin options have already been offered on CME, LedgerX and Bakkt, which are regulated and oriented primarily on whales. Among the unregulated sites, the leader is Deribit, followed by FTX and OKEx.
ForkLog magazine figured out what options are and what types of options are. We will talk about the features of these tools and the current state of affairs in the segment. In this article you will also find comments by leading market experts on the role of options in the industry.

What are options and how do they work?

An option is a financial contract concluded between two parties — the holder and the seller. The first receives the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain amount of the underlying asset at the strike price (strike price) on a specific date (expiration date).
The seller undertakes to buy or sell the asset at the request of the option holder. The latter pays the seller at the time of purchase of the contract a certain amount of money — the so-called premium.
The rights and obligations of the holder and seller differ significantly. The former has the right to choose whether to exercise the option or not. The seller is obliged to fulfill the terms of the contract at the request of the holder.
Parameters such as the type of underlying asset, expiration date, strike price are fixed at the time of issue of the contract, after which they cannot be changed.
Like futures, options are derivative financial instruments and derivatives. This means that they can be based on various underlying assets (BA) — stocks, indices or cryptocurrencies.
Like the options already existing in traditional finance for all major assets, there are contracts based on BTC and ETH on the cryptocurrency market. They are very interesting financial products“, said Su Zhu, head of Three Arrows Capital, in a conversation with ForkLog.
Options are used both for hedging risks and for speculative trading. For example, a speculator confident in the growth of the underlying asset buys a call option. If the BA price rises above the strike, the trader can use his contract to buy a discounted asset.
Derivatives such as options allow users to hedge risks and generate revenue. Derivatives play a key role in the traditional financial market. These tools are needed so that the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and develop, being filled with new participants“, said Aaron Gong, vice president of Binance Futures.

Practical use of options

Consider the simplest example of options hedging. Suppose there is a company manufacturing tomato paste, sauces and ketchups. There is a farmer supplying this company with tomatoes. He acts in conditions of fierce competition, close to perfect.
It is extremely important for a company to buy raw materials cheaper to minimize production costs and remain profitable. The farmer, in turn, hopes for a long-term cooperation with the company so as not to lose a major client.
The company offers the farmer an option, assuming the right to buy 10 tons of tomatoes of the next year’s crop at the current price — say, $1,000 per ton. To exercise this right, the company pays the farmer an option premium of 3% of the total transaction amount of $10,000, that is, $300.
The farmer will have to, at the request of the company, sell the appropriate quantity of goods at the above price and at a specified time.
A year later, the crop was high, which led to a decrease in the market value of tomatoes to $800 per ton. The company decides not to exercise its right to purchase raw materials for $10,000, as other farmers can buy the same 10 tons of tomatoes for only $8,000.
Thus, having lost only $300 as a premium on an option, the company is insured against price risk. Buying raw materials at a significantly lower market price is more than worth the price of the option contract.
Let’s imagine another scenario: the crop turned out to be unimportant and the price of scarce tomatoes jumped to $1200 per ton. Then the company will certainly take advantage of the right to purchase tomatoes for $1000. Thus, the result is any case.
It is easy to guess that the options can be used by miners to hedge the risks of adverse changes in the price of the extracted asset. For example, expecting a decrease in the price of BTC, miners can use options that give them the right to sell cryptocurrency in the future at a price higher than the breakeven point.
Miners are already very active in options markets. And, probably, they will remain active“, Su Zhu said.
Su Zhu is confident that in the long term, options will make the cryptocurrency spot market more liquid and attractive to a wide range of participants. He added that the growing popularity of such contracts among miners could significantly reduce sales pressure.
Options give miners the opportunity to fix the price of coins mined in the future. Miners can better manage their production costs and protect themselves from market volatility“, said Aaron Gong, expressing confidence that the popularity of options will continue to grow.
According to him, such tools open up new opportunities and may be of interest to speculators, funds and long-term cryptocurrency holders.
“Institutional investors are also showing growing interest in options and other derivatives. Last week it was reported that the famous Wall Street trader Paul Tudor Jones allocated a few percent from his Tudor BVI fund for bitcoin futures. This is a positive signal, which means that more and more institutions are interested in the cryptocurrency market“, Gong added.
However, option strategies are not suitable for every market participant — effective work with these tools requires certain experience, Co-founder of CoinIndex.agency Julia Sporysh is sure:
Of course, in order to use this effectively, the miner must have an experienced trader (option strategies are some of the most difficult on the market) — or they will have to unite and work through specialized trading companies. This market exists, although it is not for the general public.
Also, according to her, options may be of interest to funds and retail traders who have gained a hand in speculative trading.
Options are an independent and good speculative tool. And if you have positions in futures or in the spot market, it’s just the time to explore new opportunities“, added Yulia Sporysh.

Types of options

There are two main types of options — option call and option put. The first gives the right to the contract holder to purchase a certain amount of the underlying asset from the seller (they also say — the inscription) at the strike price on a certain date in the future. This type of option was used in the tomato example.
The put option, on the contrary, gives the buyer of the contract the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price. The latter may be higher than the market at the time of expiration, which is beneficial to the trader.
Market participants use the call, predicting an increase in the price of BA, and put — expecting it to decline.
More complex strategies use combinations of these two types of contracts.
There is also the term “covered option”. For example, an option call is covered if the seller has the amount of the underlying asset corresponding to the terms of the contract.
Options may also differ in the style of execution — American or European.
European-style options require the holder to execute the contract exclusively on the expiration date. Such options, in particular, are presented at CME and Bakkt.
American style implies the possibility of contract execution at any time prior to the date of expiration. Options of both styles are traded all over the world, their names have no relation to geographic location.
There are less standardized, exotic options. However, the popularity and importance of such instruments in the financial market is not so great.
Parameters and conditions for trading certain options are described in the specifications for them, which indicate the expiration date, strike price and other elements of the contract.

Premium, strike price and cash option

The option premium is the amount of money paid by the buyer to the seller. The premium is equal to the value of the contract and, in fact, represents a fee for the risk of adverse changes in the value of the underlying asset.
The option premium is formed by two components:
Intrinsic value — the amount that the buyer would receive if the contract were currently executed. It depends on the ratio of the price of the underlying asset and the strike.
Time value — depends on the time remaining until expiration. Usually, the less time it takes to execute a contract, the lower the premium.
As a rule, high price volatility contributes to premium growth, and vice versa. A deal with a close strike price in relation to the current one has much greater chances of closing in profit and, therefore, the premium for such an option will be relatively high.
The strike price is the price fixed in the option at which the buyer of the call option can buy (or sell, if this is a put option) the underlying asset. In turn, the seller of the contract is obliged to sell or buy BA.
Money is an indicator of the ability to receive funds from the exercise of the right to exercise a derivative. In the context of options, cash can be calculated by comparing the spot price of the BA and the strike price of the option. Thus, three options are possible:
• “in the money” option: in the case of a call — if the spot price is higher than the strike (then the intrinsic value of the contract is positive), in the case of a put, on the contrary, if the BA price is lower than the strike;
• option “on money” (or “with one’s own”) — equal strike to current stock quotes, intrinsic value equal to 0;
• the option “out of money” (“without money”) — the exercise of the option is not economically feasible; in such a situation, the current price of the underlying asset is lower than the strike price of the call option or, conversely, the spot price of the BA is higher than the strike price in the case of a put.

Option strategies

There are many option trading strategies. Four basic approaches can be distinguished.
Long call — buying a call option, the investor expects an increase in the price of the underlying asset above the strike on the expiration date of the contract. Then he will be able to buy an asset at a discount to the market price and thus earn on the difference. If the price drops below the strike, the buyer risks only the premium paid for the option.
Long put — is a kind of alternative to a short position in the spot market. The buyer of the put option hopes to make money, assuming that the price of the BA falls below the strike at the time of expiration. In this scenario, the investor may sell the asset at a higher price than the market price.
Also, through a put option, an investor can limit the risk of a fall in the price of an asset that has a long position open. According to Su Zhu, miners may use the “protective put” strategy, in whose activity a substantial and prolonged drop in the price of mined cryptocurrency is undesirable. Through such tools, miners can provide profitable or even break-even activity.
Short call — the investor acts as the seller of the contract, counting on a decrease in the price of BA below the strike on the date of expiration. However, the higher the price of the asset, the more losses the inscription bears. Thus, the risk of the seller of the contract is unlimited, and the profit potential is limited by the premium on the sale of the call.
Short put — the seller of such an option expects a premium on it, being firmly convinced that the price of the BA will be higher than the strike.
Combinations of these basic strategies may underlie more sophisticated options trading approaches, such as:
protective put — purchase of a put option for an available asset;
covered (secured) call — an investor sells a call option to an existing BA or which will be acquired simultaneously with the sale of the option; the strategy reduces the risk of owning an asset, since a fall in its price is partially offset by a premium;
straddle — a kind of bet on volatility, which implies the purchase of a call and put option on the same asset with the same expiration date and the same strike price;
strangle — almost the same as straddle, differs only in different strike prices.

Conclusions

Options are complex financial instruments, their mechanism of work is unlikely to be mastered immediately by most novice traders. Nevertheless, these derivatives may seem interesting to experienced market participants and, in particular, to miners.
The following advantages and disadvantages of options can be distinguished. Of the advantages of these contracts, we note:
- flexibility of use in speculative trading;
- the ability to use many combinations and trading strategies;
- a good tool for hedging risks;
- the ability to use in any trend — upward, downward, sideways.
Disadvantages:
- the difficulty of understanding the mechanism of work, especially for novice market participants;
- asymmetric conditions and, accordingly, risks for the buyer and seller;
- the complexity of trading strategies;
- the volatility of an option premium, which depends on the proximity of the expiration date and price dynamics in the spot market;
- low liquidity.
Different industry players have different cryptocurrency options. Some consider them promising tools useful for miners, funds, retail traders and the market as a whole. Others are convinced that such derivatives are archaism.
Nevertheless, options are gradually taking root in the cryptocurrency market. This is evident in the dynamics of trading volume and open interest. In addition, more and more exchanges are trying to add support for these contracts, which contributes to increased competition and further development of the industry.
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Get Ticketing -- A Sleeping Giant

Here is an article by an author named Adnan about why Get Ticketing will explode:
https://medium.com/@adnanzzz/the-bullish-case-of-get-protocol-451ad6059f2d
Below is the same article copied and pasted for those who are too lazy to click the link. However, I recommend reading the article from the link instead as it has a lot of graphs, links, and pictures that gives a much fuller picture.
 
"GET protocol — the sleeping blockchain giant
Bear with me as I try to explain why the GET token is currently the most bullish crypto token in the space. The price surge will be driven by adoption and not just mere speculation. And adoption is already there but will only now start to gain huge momentum!
By the time you have read this blog you will come to see how most other crypto projects lose value in your eyes when you compare it to a project with amazing fundamentals, a project that doesn’t need an “altseason”, driven by mere mindless speculation, to give you nice returns!
Most people in the crypto space have never heard of the GET protocol. This is on one side suprising because there are 191.329 wallet holders to be exact. This means that 191.329 people have used the GET protocol, mostly without even knowing it!
The focus has always been on building a product that works and where there is demand for. Where other projects have focused and spent their funds on marketing in the crypto space (meaning luring in new investors) GET has neglected that part a bit.
Instead they focused their funds on building a waterproof system and acquiring clients who will use the protocol (venues, artists, governments, …). The effect of this is that the price hasn’t been affected by speculation.
The list of artists who use GET-fueled tickets is endless and I have honestly lost sight of everyone who uses it. But to give you an example of adoption, here is a list of some of the artists who sell GET-fueled tickets:
 
What is the GET protocol and what does it do?
The GET Protocol offers a blockchain-based smart ticketing solution that can be used by everybody who needs to issue admission tickets in an honest and transparent way. The goal of GET protocol is to become the worldwide ticketing standard.
To put it in simple terms: the ticketing industry is plagued by dishonest players. Not only ticket fraud but also scalping are an enormous problem in the industry. Once a ticket sale starts bots buy up the tickets and later sell them for enormous profits.
Fans are sidelined and are forced to buy tickets of their idols for a much higher price. The scalpers, not adding any value in the process, make tons of money at the expense of artists, fans, venues, event organizers, … and everybody who makes the event industry what it is.
 
This is where GET offers a solution proven to work
The tickets issued on the GET protocol are registered on your phone. This means that only the person in possession of the phone also owns the ticket. Every ticket is unique and is based on a QR code that updates itself and rotates to prevent fraud and scalping.
The tickets are all registered on the blockchain as a mean of transparency and accountability. This means that fans can check ticket authenticity whenever they want. This is also where the GET token comes in play but more on that later…
 
GET is currently the best adopted microcap
This is a bold statement but it’s not difficult to prove. Whereas other crypto “companies” confuse their investors with a lot of technical words that the average Joe doesn’t even understand and show off with meaningless partnerships, GET is actually changing the ticketing world for the better!
At the moment of writing there are 4 ticketing companies that are completely integrated in the GET protocol, and together have sold many GET-fueled tickets!
These companies currently run on the GET protocol:
Integrating an existing ticketing company is a low investment move (only the GET token is needed) that offers traditional ticketing companies several benefits. That is why I expect many ticketing companies to integrate and GET to scale quickly.
 
The supply
Some people are scared by the big difference in the circulating supply and the total supply. This is an unneccessary fear. The GET supply is made up of 3 portions:
This means that the circulating supply as it is now can only, ever, lightly increase for the purpose of growth. With the buybacks and burns being large enough the circulating supply will instead keep decreasing at a swift tempo.
 
GET in times of COVID19
In May Dutch group Di-Rect sold thousands of tickets for an online concert. They used GET’s technology to use a dynamic price setting. This means that fans were given the option to pay whatever they wanted for a ticket. Whoever paid €20 or more had the chance to win a lottery and be present at the concert.
Once the concert starts, whoever bought a ticket, will be able to watch the streamed concert on GUTS’ app. This is yet another proof of the advantages a digital ticket offers. As this was a big succes, the expectation is that more and more artists will make use of GET’s technology.
On 27/05 Dennis van Aarssen, The Voice Of Holland 2019 winner, announced that he will also do a livestreamed performance of classic covers and original music on June 7th. All tickets will be issued through the GET protocol.
GET also offers several advantages in different areas in the fights against COVID19. The right of access being linked to your mobile makes it possible for potential clients to monitor the number of visitors in real time all the time, to apply an automated seating selection which consideres an appropriate distance between all visitors, queue control, booking of timeslots for museums, shops, parks, beaches, … so overcrowding can be avoided.
When an event gets cancelled, whereas with paper tickets it’s sometimes impossible to track who owns the ticket at the current time, with GET’s technology the event organizer can, with one click, choose to make a refund to the current ticket owner, to communicate with him, to postpone the event, …
 
What more to expect in the (near) future?
There are so many amazing things to come in the very near future so I’ll only focus on a few of them:
Seeing the adoption the GET protocol has, the solution they bring and the enormous potential they have in conquering the ticketing industry, they have been asked by Kakao to join their blockchain “Klaytn”. So GET is an initial service partner of the Klaytn blockchain.
“Kakao’s global public blockchain project Klaytn is an enterprise-grade, service-centric platform that brings user-friendly blockchain experience to millions.”
The choice for choosing to be an Initial Service Provider of Klaytn is based on two aspects. The first aspect is the fact that Klaytn’s blockchain infrastructure is fully business and integration focused, more than any other blockchain in the market.
This results in huge improvements in areas as cost-efficiency, scalability, and data reliability. The second aspect is fueled by the potential of being part of the Klaytn ecosystem.
Kakao is a giant in South Korea. GET will bring its adoption to Kakao’s blockchain and Kakao, with its giant network, in return will open many doors in South Korea. A win-win for everyone involved!
In 2017 Kakao had more than 220 millions users on their messaging and content platform. The last few years the company has been rapidly expanding in other industry verticals.
 
GET fueled tickets sold for K-pop stars
As mentioned earlier: South Korean ticketing company getTicket will run fully on the GET protocol. They have already deals in line to sell tickets for K-pop stars in their country.
K-pop legend Mr. Won-Kwan Jung, as someone who has a lot of connections in the K-pop world, has joined the GET protocol as an advisor. He is an iconic figure and innovator in the world of K-Pop, owing to the fact that he was one of the three original members of SoBangCha, (or ‘Firetruck’ in English) which is regarded as the first K-Pop group to exist in the world.
In a survey conducted in 17 countries in 2019, around 37.5 percent of respondents stated that the genre K-pop was “very popular” in their country. The survey found that the popularity of K-pop reaches far beyond South Korean borders.
The fact that their idols will be selling GET-fueled tickets hasn’t reached the Korean audience yet. It is still a “public secret”. The news will be released in a directed marketing campaign later this year. You better believe that once the Koreans find out that they’ll be buying GET like hot cupcakes!
 
Tickets for museums and beaches to be in line with COVID19 restriction measures
With the Corona virus still not wiped out but more under control, many countries are lifting restrictions. This needs to be done in a safe and controlled manner. This means avoiding overcrowding. GET’s technology can and will surely help here.
GET’s system can do all that is needed now for a safe experience. Whether it’s booking a timeslot for the beach, for a museum,… or even for a shop from your home. The system lets the client monitor everything in real time. Someone can that way for example choose to go when there is less crowd. This all while fully respecting the user’s privacy.
The GET sales team has been busier than ever, being in contact with governments, museums, … and the dev team is constantly creating custom made smart ticketing solutions for new costumers. I’m sure we can expect some major announcements in this area soon!
 
Top tier exchange listings & marketing in the crypto space
The team has confirmed that listing on a top tier exchange has already been agreed. They’re just waiting for the right time to announce it, fitting in their marketing campaign. Besides that, a fiat on ramp exchange will list GET in a short timeframe.
Many projects invested most of their funds in exchange listings and fake volume, creating artifical demand. These exchange listings are almost always accompanied by paying for a market maker. Once the funds dry up (and we have seen this with many projects) delisting becomes a reality and the funds end up being spent in vain.
GET’s exchange listing and marketing campaign aren’t a means to pump the price but have the goal of creating liquidity for the end users (mainly ticketing companies) who will need to acquire a lot of GET from the open market in the short future.
 
Expansion in several other countries
GET’s business developer Sander:
"I am reached out by ticketing parties all around the world on a daily basis. The main challenge is to vet these parties. The goal of GET Protocol is to be the worldwide standard of digital admission rights and to get there we need to stay extremely lean and flexible in order to scale well.
In that sense we need to be 100% convinced the parties we partner up in this phase have a very high potential of becoming a big player in their respective geographies. From the onboardings we currently experience, we learn to speed up onboarding processes upcoming year."
And when asked how many tickets he expects to be sold in the near future and how many ticketing companies he expects to run on the GET protocol in 5 years time:
"Along the journey, we here at GET and GUTS learned quite a few things. One of them is avoiding to publicly announce ticket sale estimates as the chances are that we shoot ourselves in the foot with that. If we don’t meet our estimates, life sucks and the community will let us know which is fine and rightful, but to be honest for GET nothing to win.
If we meet our goal, it is okay but even then some people members manage to say they hoped for even better. In that sense, whatever we do, we can’t do well enough on that front, so I am reluctant about giving specific numbers (and I don’t have a crystal sphere either!).
That being said, regarding the amount of ticketing companies in 2025, I expect many, in many countries. It’s a matter of time that we can easier offer our products in a whitelabeled manner. Only this week we got requests for more information about our services from Germany, Paraguay, Mexico, UK and Italy and Australia.
This certainly doesn’t always mean a ticketing company could lead out of such a request, but the interest is certainly there. If we keep on doing what we do now, I believe we can boost ticketeers and event organizers around the world pretty soon and let them issue fully digital and blockchain registered tickets, all processed by GET Protocol. If more ticketing companies are onboarded, the amount of ticket sales processed by the protocol will grow exponentially."
Knowing how GET’s team has always been very careful with their promises, I take such statements very seriously. If the past has taught me anything: they’re probably making an understatement. So expect GET to spread its wings in many regions around the world and take the ticketing world by a storm!
 
Staking & nodes
GET’s blockchain developer Kasper Keunen has announced that a staking model is being developed. This means that you’ll be able to stake your GET. In return a portion of the ticketing fee will be rewarded to those stakers and nodes. So see it as a passive income. You sit down, relax and see it grow exponentionally as GET conquers the ticketing world :)
 
The end goal is to be an open source protocol
The endgoal of the GET protocol is to become open source. There will be a governance model where changes to the protocol will be determined by GET token holders. That’s why I expect ticketing companies to acquire a lot of GET in time as their revenue relies on the direction of the protocol.
GET will have a role as governance for the project as a whole. Such a role for the token is the most natural in a fully open-sourced environment of the protocol(currently not the case, yet).
As then governance by stakeholders (ticketing companies) with a serious stake in the game as their ticketing revenue relies on the direction/quality of the code to be on point.
As of yet, we do not really assign too much fundamental value to this role for the token (we barely mentioned it actually) as it is still a bit early for it to have serious merit.
So pushing that value of the token now would be a bit false advertising. As we onboard more and more ticketing companies we will develop the governance of the token role more and more!
 
Why the GET token is set to explode
Now that I’ve covered what the GET protocol is and where it’s going, it’s time to dig deeper in the token. And I have to say that I’ve never been more bullish on anything in my life. This for the simple reason that usage will drive the price to insanely high levels (where speculation isn’t even needed).
 
Tokenomics
As mentioned above: to have full transparency and accountability (both missing links to make the ticket industry fraud- and scalpfree) all tickets sold are registered on blockchain.
You can compare GET to a gas that is needed to fuel the protocol (every state change of the ticket needs to be registered — for which GET is needed). So for every ticket sold GET is bought back from the open market and burned forever.
 
GET’s valuation in the (near) future
Bear in mind that this is my own expectation, based on big changes in supply and demand that I will try to explain below. Also keep in mind that I’m not a financial advisor and nothing is guaranteed in the crypto space!
But I will try to explain why I personally believe that GET will be trading at 10€ per token and more in the near future.
As time goes on and more tickets are sold, the demand for GET will keep increasing while the supply will keep decreasing. You don’t need to have a PhD in economics to understand what this will do to the price!
 
What kind of demand/buybacks can we expect?
As explained above: for every ticket sold at least €0,28 worth of GET is needed by the ticketing companies. Most of this GET is bought back from the exchanges (the money to do this is included in the ticket fee).
Some GET is supplied by the “user growth fund”. This is a fund created to give potential new customers a discount. This is done by subsidizing them a portion of their need for GET so these new customers don’t need to pay the full price immediately. Bear in mind that as time goes by this fund will dry up and all the GET that is needed will from that moment on be bought from the exchanges.
Since the buybacks are based on the amount of tickets issued by the protocol, to calculate what kind of buybacks we can expect in the future we need to look at the ticket sales. As mentioned before there are 4 ticketing companies using the protocol right now (GUTS, ITIX, TecTix and getTicket). Below I will make an estimation of what to expect from them.
GUTS has sold over 400k tickets. From just the deals already signed, over a million tickets would have been sold in 2020. Due to Covid19 most events had to be posponed (not cancelled). In the meanwhile the GUTS sales team hasn’t been idle and has atracted many more customers.
This means that the 1 million tickets number is probably even on the low side. But let’s say a minimum of 1 million tickets will be sold the first year where all events will be allowed again. This means that at least €280.000 worth of GET will be needed in that year.
ITIX sells 2 million tickets a year on average. Once fully integrated they will thus need at least €560.000 worth of GET on a yearly basis.
TecTix, as a new ticketing company, it’s hard to predict what kind of numbers they’ll be running at the start. But given the expertise of the TecTix team I think 200.000 tickets is a safe bet to start with. That would put us on at last €56.000 worth of GET needed/year.
And finally getTicket, a ticketing company based in South Korea. In their case it’s also difficult to make a prediction because they’re new and we have no previous data to rely on.
But judging from the comments made by the team that “everything is bigger in Korea” and that they’ll be selling stadium concerts for K-pop stars (just one concerts can mean over 100.000 tickets sold) I think it’s safe to say that they’ll be selling at least 1 million tickets/year. That would bring their need for GET to at least €280.000 a year.
So if we put this together the 4 ticketing companies will need over € 1 million worth of GET on a yearly basis. Bear in mind that more ticketing companies will keep joining and the existing ticketing companies will keep growing, taking away marketshare from ticketing companies that can’t offer all of the advantages mentioned before.
Based on all of this I, pesonally, would say that €5 million/year in GET buybacks by 2023 is not an unreasonable prediction.
 
What can we expect from GET’s supply?
Demand for a token means nothing if the supply is unlimited. The best example of the importance of the supply is the recent Bitcoin halvening that got everyone excited.
Before the halvening around 1800 BTC were mined every day. Let’s say that at current prices this was around $16 million worth of BTC per day. The miners obviously have to sell a large portion of this to cover their costs. So even if there are no other sellers, a large number of BTC has to be bought from the market every day just to keep status quo of the current price.
Halvening basically means that the speed at which the supply increases will be halved (900 BTC mined on a daily basis instead of 1800). The supply of BTC will still continue to increase, only at a slower tempo.
Scarcity should be the ultimate goal when investing in utility tokens.
With GET’s utility token things are different: every GET bought by a ticketing company will be burned. Contrary to BTC the supply of GET will thus continue to decrease as time goes on, removing the stacks of those eager to sell.
This is not a dig at Bitcoin by the way as I’m a fan. Just highlighting the advantage an adopted utility token with good tokenomics has over “the king”.
I hope you now understand my expectation that the price will explode. Many holders will obviously not be willing to sell at current prices with such an increasing demand.
As the price is determined by many factors and we don’t know what the price will do exactly, it’s not possible to pin down the exact supply in the future. We do know that it will keep decreasing at a swift tempo unless the price goes parabolic.
 
Finding the equilibrum for the price
The demand for GET will keep increasing through adoption and the supply decreasing as the used GET are destroyed forever
The equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity occur where the supply and demand curves cross. The equilibrium occurs where the quantity demanded is equal to the quantity supplied. If the demand increases and the supply decreases then the price will rise until it finds a new equilibrium.
Putting a correct marketcap valuation on a crypto project is an extremely difficult task. With traditional companies we can for example rely on the revenue, profit, dividend payments, … to estimate what the company is/should be worth.
In most countries a 5% rental yield is considered a good investment. Of course it’s not fully comparable as these buybacks don’t automatically put money on your account. But they do increase the price and destroy the supply. So I think it’s in a way reasonable to extrapolate this 5% yield to our case.
Having explained why I expect atleast €5 million in yearly buybacks by 2023, that would mean the marketcap should be around €100 million (5% = the buyback of €5 million multiplied by 20).
The current circulating supply of GET is around 13,5 million. The expectation is that the burning mechanism will destroy more than half of that by 2023 (this takes into account an increasing price of the GET token). So let’s round it up to 5 million GET remaining.
A marketcap of €100 million with a supply of 5 million GET would mean a price of €20/GET. This would be an increase of 6566.67%.
Of course these numbers are not set in stone and merely a prediction but if you’ve been reading this blog you have come to understand why I am extremely bullish on the GET token.
I have completely taken the speculation factor or an “altseason” or “fomo” out of the equation and only focused on a price increase driven by an increasing demand and decreasing supply! So the focus is on an organic price growth.
Another great thing about holding a token with mass adoption and guaranteed buybacks is that I don’t have to worry about the price. As the buybacks are a guaranteed thing, the lower the price of GET the more GET is bought back and destroyed forever. So even a price decrease, as contradictory as it may sound, is bullish for longterm holders!
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Why do 51% attacks happen and what are they?

Before we dive into this topic, one should understand the basics of Blockchain technology. A well-distributed blockchain consists of thousands of different nodes that individually support the network’s decentralization and security. These nodes are by itself supported by miners, basically computers who use their processing power to solve mathematical equations. All these nodes and mining computers are connected and together make up for a distributed datacenter we know as a blockchain. The way of reaching consensus about the given rules within the protocol varies per blockchain. The oldest and most commonly used version is the Proof-Of-Work blockchain, invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Given the fact thousands of people and institutions around the world support these networks, it’s hard to breach the security. In theory, it is possible, however.
What is a 51% attack? A blockchain is hard to hack into, it’s not as simple to crack as a regular database that usually hides behind admin access gained with a couple passwords. In order to breach a blockchain, you’d have to perform a 51% attack. This simply means that you would have to gain access over more than 50% hashrate of the network, thus 51% attack. Hashrate is another word for mining power. The moment one sole entity is in charge of more than half of the network, this party can now change its consensus protocol. By doing so, you could reverse the blockchain years back in time causing many transactions to never have occurred, allow more Bitcoin to be created or destroy parts of the entire supply. This means you could cause chaos. The chances of a 51% attack are not that high, but in history, it has happened before.
Ethereum Classic One of the most famous 51% attacks was on the original Ethereum protocol, Ethereum Classic. After a major hack in the early days of the Ethereum network, the team we now know responsible for Ethereum took control of the network and reversed the attack. To frustration of the core team of Ethereum, that went on to build further on Ethereum Classic, the version that was never forked or whatsoever. Having a smaller market cap would make it less expensive for a single entity to take control of the network and that is what happened. $1.1 million in ETC was double spent during the attack, causing many major exchanges to halt the trading of the coin. Prices went down but eventually recovered and the hackers eventually got away with it.
Verge This project has suffered multiple attacks over the years. After claiming to be the number one privacy coin, the project called for many haters to come to their front doors. Back in 2018 however, Verge suffered from more than one attack. It started with a hacker found a way of integrating malicious software into the mining protocol. With their new version of the protocol, they could mine multiple blocks per minute on the verge blockchain, gaining them control over network hashrates and move XVG to their wallets. At the peak of the second attack, the hackers were mining 25 blocks per minute, or roughly 8250 XVG or $950 every single minute. Reports say over $1.7 million in XVG was stolen in the three attacks. The team behind Verge called it nothing but a DDoS attack. Afterward, a hard fork occurred and now a multi-algorithm style of mining is utilized to minimize the probability of another 51% attack.
How can it happen? You might be wondering, how is this possible? You plug in thousands of mining rigs and there you have it, you just gained control of the network. This, however, is a very expensive operation. Doing this for the Bitcoin blockchain would cost you around 1 Billion dollars, that amount much lower for smaller coins though. Ever heard of Monero? That’d cost you roughly $25,000 according to calculations by Exaking. These are theoretical examples, in practice, many of these projects have built-in warning signs and detectors to go against these kinds of attacks. It is, however, important to be aware of this possibility. You can not just blindly trust any blockchain out there to be a hundred percent safe.
SwapSpace team is always ready for discussion. You can drop an email about your suggestions and questions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Join our social networks: Twitter, Medium, Facebook The best rates on https://swapspace.co/ Why is SwapSpace https://blog.swapspace.co/2019/09/17/why-is-swapspace/
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3 Ways Staking Will Upend the Economics of Ethereum

3 Ways Staking Will Upend the Economics of Ethereum
https://preview.redd.it/mfcgvl0ksnu31.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=a262ca1e85dbf1d186ce40c7a7b699ab76c983b0
The Takeaway
  • New analysis of the economic model behind ethereum 2.0 suggests validators can expect to earn 4.6–10.3 percent in annualized rewards at the start.
  • The hardware cost for running ethereum 2.0 validator software may increase as a result of a new design proposal by founder Vitalik Buterin.
  • Even so, the economic model of ethereum 2.0 maintains inflation rates below 1 percent and a dynamically adjusting rewards scale for validators.
As ethereum undergoes a major upgrade in 2020, how might the economics of the second-largest blockchain begin to shift?
The next major iteration of ethereum, dubbed Ethereum 2.0, will be based on a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus protocol. This means that transactions on the blockchain will be processed and validated by users who stake wealth as opposed to miners who expend energy.
People who stake on ethereum’s PoS network — known as validators — are rewarded by earning annualized interest on their locked-in ether. At present, the minimum amount of ether required to become a validator is 32 ETH, which is equivalent to roughly $5,200.
Collin Myers, head of global product strategy at Consensys, the Brooklyn-based ethereum venture studio, said validators with 32 ETH can expect to earn between 4.6 and 10.3 percent in annualized returns at the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 network.
Myers announced during the recent ethereum developer conference Devcon that he was building a user application enabling validators to calculate annual gross and net returns given varying costs of hardware and electricity.
“The ETH 2.0 Calculator [is being] developed for protocol researchers, validators and enthusiasts to increase transparency and education of the Ethereum 2.0 network economics,” Myers said in a Devcon presentation. He plans to launch the web tool in conjunction with the launch of Ethereum 2.0, which is tentatively planned for the first quarter of 2020.
Of course, current figures on validator rewards for Ethereum 2.0 are by no means set in stone, as the community is still debating the design parameters of the upgrade.
Kristy-Leigh Minehan, former CTO of blockchain and AI startup Core Scientific, who proposed the contentious ethereum mining algorithm change “ProgPoW,” said:
“These are proposed suggestions by ethereum research but until we actually roll over to Ethereum 2.0, none of us will know for sure. They’re constantly tweaking it right now. It can be pretty fluid.”
Myers said community input on the design of Ethereum 2.0 was imperative.
“This is a topic that we will continue to jam on. It’s not completed or ended yet,” he said. “There’s been new things proposed by Vitalik [Buterin] that would [change things] if accepted by the community.”

What might be changing

One of the most recent proposals by ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin suggests a sharp reduction in the number of mini-blockchains, or shards, in the initial phases of Ethereum 2.0 deployment.
Instead of launching the full network with 1,024 shards, Buterin proposes launching just 64, thereby improving cross-shard communication on the network.
This proposal has been well-received by researchers and protocol developers, who say lowering the number of shards will reduce the network’s complexity. But a reduction in shard count means a lower number of validators and total stake needed to secure the Ethereum 2.0 network.
“By lowering the shard count, essentially you need to make some other trade-off,” said Myers, adding:
“You’re going to have to increase the power of the independent [validators] running on the network. It’s a higher grade of hardware. It’s going to be a bit more expensive for me to participate as a validator.”
With these caveats, Myers highlighted three important details about Ethereum 2.0’s economic model that he doesn’t see changing any time soon.

Targeted returns

According to Myers’ calculations, validators on Ethereum 2.0 who stake 32 ETH have the potential to earn 10.4 percent in annual interest given the assumption the network launches with 2 million ETH staked.
This 10.4 percent target return for validators is unlikely to change even with only one-sixteenth of the shards originally envisioned for the network. However, “net issuance” (Myers’s term), which takes account of hardware costs, will likely have to be updated.
At launch, validators can expect to receive 5.60 percent of their stake in rewards. If they require a higher grade of hardware to run Ethereum 2.0 software, and there are only 64 shards, returns are likely to fall in value.
“Some say [net returns] will decrease by 20 percent but those numbers aren’t exact and I haven’t made my opinion on that yet,” Myers said.
Validators on a proof-of-stake blockchain like Ethereum 2.0 have a similar responsibility to that of miners on a proof-of-work blockchain. These actors on a blockchain serve to process transactions and append new blocks.
The new model changes the emphasis from computation to control. PoW networks have external costs, such as computational power. Ensuring the honesty of actors on a PoS network are internal mechanisms such as staked value.
The more ETH people stake on Ethereum 2.0, the greater its level of security. The fewer shards there are in Ethereum 2.0, the fewer validators it needs to secure the overall network.
Jack O’Holleran, CEO and founder of ethereum scalability startup Skale Labs, said of this dynamic rewards model:
“On a high level, Ethereum 2.0 is trying to solve the elasticity, as well as, supply and demand, issues of ETH. One real innovative and impactful thing [about Ethereum 2.0] is its dynamic pricing.”

Crowd mentality

Following the launch of Ethereum 2.0, a greater number of validators will be needed to secure the Ethereum 2.0 network and ensure the honesty of all actors.
This is because the first stage of deployment, called Phase Zero, only introduces one PoS blockchain: the “beacon chain.” In a subsequent deployment stage, Phase 1, developers plan to launch 1,024 (or 64) other PoS blockchains, known as shards. To secure all these additional PoS networks, Myers said a higher number of validators, and staked wealth, will be needed in the system.
As the overall staked wealth of the Ethereum 2.0 ecosystem grows, the lower the annualized reward becomes for each individual validator. The dynamic rewards scheme for Ethereum 2.0 ensures that the network is never over- or under-paying for its security.
Fredrik Harrysson, CTO of ethereum software client Parity, told CoinDesk in April:
“There’s a sliding scale of rewards that depends on how much ETH is locked up in stake. In a system where you have very small amounts of stake locked up, you want to encourage more people to stake and lock up more ETH to increase the security of the chain.”
The aim in Phase 1, according to Myers, will be to reduce reward issuance on 32 ETH for each validator to roughly 7.2 percent in interest and 2.39 percent in net profit.
This is comparable to other staking networks, such as Dash and Tezos, which return upwards of 5 percent interest annually.
Annualized rewards for validators on Ethereum 2.0 depend on the overall amount of wealth staked as well as the total percentage of validators online actively processing transactions.
Should only 70 percent of validators be online at a given point in time on the Ethereum 2.0 network, interest rates drop from Myers’s estimate of 7.2 percent to 5.81 percent, at least according to his calculations assuming 1,024 shards.
“[Ethereum 2.0] is a collective rewards scheme. The more people online, the more everyone earns. The less online, the less that people are earning,” Myers said.
“This is one of the design parameters of Ethereum 2.0 that is quite innovative and genius on the human level. It encourages getting people who don’t know each other to collectively come together and do something,” he said.

Network issuance

Even in the ideal scenario of all validators staking 32 ETH in a 1,024 shard universe, the overall network issuance of ether is designed to never exceed 1 percent supply growth annually. This is meant to guard against inflation, and devaluation of purchasing power for the coin over time.
That said, controlling ether supply growth on the current ethereum mainnet has been a persistent source of contention for the ethereum community since launch in 2015.
Unlike bitcoin, with a hard supply cap of 21 million bitcoins, ethereum’s supply of ether will continue to grow over time. Currently, inflation on ethereum is approximately 4.5 percent, according to ethereum information site ETHHub.
Ethereum inflation rates have been as high as 18 percent, but have fallen significantly recently thanks to a series of system-wide upgrades, called hard forks, where developers reduced block rewards issuance in three increments from 5 ETH/block at launch to 2 ETH/block now.
The latest reduction from 3 ETH to 2 ETH was a compromise among ethereum stakeholders who presented conflicting proposals for reducing block rewards.
In Ethereum 2.0, new monetary policies are designed to ensure a consistent level of inflation below one percent and therefore a steady ETH in the long-run.
Of course, all these metrics are subject to revision as developers execute hard forks.
“In the early days of this system, we’re going to hard-fork a bunch. This is healthy because it means we’re squashing old ideas and innovating new ideas,” Myers said. “The more we hard fork, the healthier it means we are.”
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Bitcoin Rhodium Mining Guide

Bitcoin Rhodium Mining Guide
Happy Mining!

All available XRC pools can be found on MiningPoolStats

Bitcoin Rhodium Mining Hardware

Baikal Giant+: 1.6 GH/s
Baikal Quad Cube: 1.2 GH/s
Baikal Giant: 900 MH/s
Baikal Quadruple Mini Miner: 600 MH/s
Baikal Miner Cube: 300 MH/s
Baikal Mini Miner: 150 MH/s

Mining Setup

To mine Bitcoin Rhodium you need to set up an XRC wallet and configure your miner of choice. You can choose between Web wallet, Electrum-XRC or Magnum wallet. To set up a web wallet please visit wallet.bitcoinrh.org. Or download and install Electrum-XRC wallet (recommended) for Windows, Linux and MacOS.
Web wallet: wallet.bitcoinrh.org
Electrum-XRC wallet: electrum.bitcoinrh.org
Magnum wallet: https://magnumwallet.co

Sign up for XRC web wallet if not yet done so

  1. Create an account, with your username, password and secure question.
  2. Sign in and click “Create Wallet”.
  3. Set up a strong transaction password. Make sure you store it securely in a secure password manager of choice.
  4. Copy the seed somewhere safe. It’d be a good idea to write seed on a hardcopy and keep it safe.
  5. Paste it to confirm you got it right.
  6. Grab an address for the mining step. Your wallet is now ready to mine XRC.

Instructions for mining XRC on the official pool

Pool link: poolcore.bitcoinrh.org
  1. Any miner that supports X13 will be able to mine XRC. We have a few examples below of miners that are well tested with Bitcoin Rhodium network.
  2. For any miner, configure the miner to point to:
(0–0.8 GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3061
(0.8–2 GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3062
(3–4 GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3063
(5+ GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3064
with your XRC address as username and x as password. You don’t need to open an account on pool. You will be mining to XRC address and mined coins will be transferred to your wallet
after blocks reach 10 block maturity
after you mined up minimal amount of coins (currently 0.1 XRC)
sometimes mined blocks could get rejected by network (orphaned) after they were counted as valid blocks. This is normal network behavior to follow longest chain
  1. http://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org is used to follow your miner and network statistics.

CPU Miner-Multi

Source: https://github.com/tpruvot/cpuminer-multi
Sample configuration with CPU Miner tested on UBUNTU.
{
“url” : “stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3061”, “user” : “YOUR XRC ADDRESS”,
“pass” : “x”,
“algo” : “x13”, “threads” : 1,
“cpu-priority” : 5,
“cpu-affinity” : 1, “benchmark” : false, “debug” : true, “protocol”: true, “show-diff”: true, “quiet” : false
}
Command to run your CPUMiner: cpuminer -c cpuminer.json

SGMiner (ATI GPU)

SGMiner is a GPU-based mine: https://github.com/nicehash/sgminereleases
The configuration below was tested on Windows:
setx GPU_FORCE_64BIT_PTR 0
setx GPU_MAX_HEAP_SIZE 100
setx GPU_USE_SYNC_OBJECTS 1
setx GPU_MAX_ALLOC_PERCENT 100
setx GPU_SINGLE_ALLOC_PERCENT 100
cd C:\Software\sgminer-5.6.1-nicehash-51-windowsamd64 sgminer.exe
— gpu-platform 1 — algorithm x13mod -url stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh. org:3062 — pool-user — userpass :x — auto-fan — temp-target 70 — temp-over- heat 82 — temp-cutoff 85 — gpu-fan 65–85 — log-file log.txt — no-adl — no-extra- nonce -P –T

CCMiner (NVIDIA GPU)

CCMiner is a GPU-based miner (NVIDIA)
Command to run your CCMINER:
ccminer-x64.exe -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3062 -O :without -D — show-diff

Baikal miner

Settings: Url:
(0–2 GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3062
(3–4 GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3063
(5+ GH/s) stratum+tcp://poolcore.bitcoinrh.org:3064
Algo: x13User: your XRC receiving address (make sure you set 2 distinct addresses for each hashing board)
Pass: x
Extranonce: leave off Priority set to 0 and 1
Once pool stratum address and your wallet as user are set up you should see your miner mining against XRC pool. When miner is working the status column is green. The pool and miner are incorrectly configured now as status says “Dead” highlighted in red.

Instructions for mining XRC on BSOD pool

Pool link: bsod.pw/en/pool/dashboard/XRC/
Use this code for your miner: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://pool.bsod.pw:2582 -u WALLET.rig
BSOD pool allows both solo and party mining.
For solo mining use code: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://pool.bsod.pw:2582 -u WALLET.rig -p m=solo And for party mining use: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://pool.bsod.pw:2582 -u WALLET.rig -p m=party.yourpassword
NOTICE: You can use us for North America and asia for Asia instead of euin your .bat file or config.
You can also use BSOD pool’s monitor app for Android and iOS.

Instructions for mining XRC on ZERGPOOL

Zergpool offers low fees (just 0.5%) and also SOLO and PARTY mining with no extra fees.
To mine XRC on Zergpool use this command lines for your miner:
Regular: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://x13.mine.zergpool.com:3633 -u -p c=XRC,mc=XRC Solo: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://x13.mine.zergpool.com:3633 -u -p c=XRC,mc=XRC,m=solo Party: -a x13 -o stratum+tcp://x13.mine.zergpool.com:3633 -u -p c=XRC,mc=XRC,m=party
Use your coin wallet address as username in mining software. Specify c=SYMBOL as password to identify payout wallet coin, and the same coin in mc=SYMBOL to specify mining coin.
For more information and support please visit http://zergpool.com
Notice that when there are more pools mining XRC in different geographic/availability locations choose the nearest to you as lowest priority and then add desirable fall back pool options in different geographic locations or pools. This is useful when one pool experiences issues, to fall back to different pool in Bitcoin Rhodium network.

Calculate your Bitcoin Rhodium mining profitability

WhatToMine: https://whattomine.com/coins/317-xrc-x13
CoinCalculators: https://www.coincalculators.io/coin/bitcoin-rhodium

Feel free to ask questions in Discord community. There are lots of helpful people around the world watching XRC 24x7.

Bitcoin Rhodium Dev Team
submitted by BitcoinRh to BitcoinRhodium [link] [comments]

Why do 51% attacks happen and what are they?

Before we dive into this topic, one should understand the basics of Blockchain technology. A well-distributed blockchain consists of thousands of different nodes that individually support the network’s decentralization and security. These nodes are by itself supported by miners, basically computers who use their processing power to solve mathematical equations. All these nodes and mining computers are connected and together make up for a distributed datacenter we know as a blockchain. The way of reaching consensus about the given rules within the protocol varies per blockchain. The oldest and most commonly used version is the Proof-Of-Work blockchain, invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Given the fact thousands of people and institutions around the world support these networks, it’s hard to breach the security. In theory, it is possible, however.
What is a 51% attack? A blockchain is hard to hack into, it’s not as simple to crack as a regular database that usually hides behind admin access gained with a couple passwords. In order to breach a blockchain, you’d have to perform a 51% attack. This simply means that you would have to gain access over more than 50% hashrate of the network, thus 51% attack. Hashrate is another word for mining power. The moment one sole entity is in charge of more than half of the network, this party can now change its consensus protocol. By doing so, you could reverse the blockchain years back in time causing many transactions to never have occurred, allow more Bitcoin to be created or destroy parts of the entire supply. This means you could cause chaos. The chances of a 51% attack are not that high, but in history, it has happened before.
Ethereum Classic One of the most famous 51% attacks was on the original Ethereum protocol, Ethereum Classic. After a major hack in the early days of the Ethereum network, the team we now know responsible for Ethereum took control of the network and reversed the attack. To frustration of the core team of Ethereum, that went on to build further on Ethereum Classic, the version that was never forked or whatsoever. Having a smaller market cap would make it less expensive for a single entity to take control of the network and that is what happened. $1.1 million in ETC was double spent during the attack, causing many major exchanges to halt the trading of the coin. Prices went down but eventually recovered and the hackers eventually got away with it.
Verge This project has suffered multiple attacks over the years. After claiming to be the number one privacy coin, the project called for many haters to come to their front doors. Back in 2018 however, Verge suffered from more than one attack. It started with a hacker found a way of integrating malicious software into the mining protocol. With their new version of the protocol, they could mine multiple blocks per minute on the verge blockchain, gaining them control over network hashrates and move XVG to their wallets. At the peak of the second attack, the hackers were mining 25 blocks per minute, or roughly 8250 XVG or $950 every single minute. Reports say over $1.7 million in XVG was stolen in the three attacks. The team behind Verge called it nothing but a DDoS attack. Afterward, a hard fork occurred and now a multi-algorithm style of mining is utilized to minimize the probability of another 51% attack.
How can it happen? You might be wondering, how is this possible? You plug in thousands of mining rigs and there you have it, you just gained control of the network. This, however, is a very expensive operation. Doing this for the Bitcoin blockchain would cost you around 1 Billion dollars, that amount much lower for smaller coins though. Ever heard of Monero? That’d cost you roughly $25,000 according to calculations by Exaking. These are theoretical examples, in practice, many of these projects have built-in warning signs and detectors to go against these kinds of attacks. It is, however, important to be aware of this possibility. You can not just blindly trust any blockchain out there to be a hundred percent safe.
SwapSpace team is always ready for discussion. You can drop an email about your suggestions and questions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Join our social networks: Twitter, Medium, Facebook The best rates on https://swapspace.co/ Why is SwapSpace https://blog.swapspace.co/2019/09/17/why-is-swapspace/
submitted by SwapSpace_co to bitcoin_uncensored [link] [comments]

Why do 51% attacks happen and what are they?

Before we dive into this topic, one should understand the basics of Blockchain technology. A well-distributed blockchain consists of thousands of different nodes that individually support the network’s decentralization and security. These nodes are by itself supported by miners, basically computers who use their processing power to solve mathematical equations. All these nodes and mining computers are connected and together make up for a distributed datacenter we know as a blockchain. The way of reaching consensus about the given rules within the protocol varies per blockchain. The oldest and most commonly used version is the Proof-Of-Work blockchain, invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Given the fact thousands of people and institutions around the world support these networks, it’s hard to breach the security. In theory, it is possible, however.
What is a 51% attack? A blockchain is hard to hack into, it’s not as simple to crack as a regular database that usually hides behind admin access gained with a couple passwords. In order to breach a blockchain, you’d have to perform a 51% attack. This simply means that you would have to gain access over more than 50% hashrate of the network, thus 51% attack. Hashrate is another word for mining power. The moment one sole entity is in charge of more than half of the network, this party can now change its consensus protocol. By doing so, you could reverse the blockchain years back in time causing many transactions to never have occurred, allow more Bitcoin to be created or destroy parts of the entire supply. This means you could cause chaos. The chances of a 51% attack are not that high, but in history, it has happened before.
Ethereum Classic One of the most famous 51% attacks was on the original Ethereum protocol, Ethereum Classic. After a major hack in the early days of the Ethereum network, the team we now know responsible for Ethereum took control of the network and reversed the attack. To frustration of the core team of Ethereum, that went on to build further on Ethereum Classic, the version that was never forked or whatsoever. Having a smaller market cap would make it less expensive for a single entity to take control of the network and that is what happened. $1.1 million in ETC was double spent during the attack, causing many major exchanges to halt the trading of the coin. Prices went down but eventually recovered and the hackers eventually got away with it.
Verge This project has suffered multiple attacks over the years. After claiming to be the number one privacy coin, the project called for many haters to come to their front doors. Back in 2018 however, Verge suffered from more than one attack. It started with a hacker found a way of integrating malicious software into the mining protocol. With their new version of the protocol, they could mine multiple blocks per minute on the verge blockchain, gaining them control over network hashrates and move XVG to their wallets. At the peak of the second attack, the hackers were mining 25 blocks per minute, or roughly 8250 XVG or $950 every single minute. Reports say over $1.7 million in XVG was stolen in the three attacks. The team behind Verge called it nothing but a DDoS attack. Afterward, a hard fork occurred and now a multi-algorithm style of mining is utilized to minimize the probability of another 51% attack.
How can it happen? You might be wondering, how is this possible? You plug in thousands of mining rigs and there you have it, you just gained control of the network. This, however, is a very expensive operation. Doing this for the Bitcoin blockchain would cost you around 1 Billion dollars, that amount much lower for smaller coins though. Ever heard of Monero? That’d cost you roughly $25,000 according to calculations by Exaking. These are theoretical examples, in practice, many of these projects have built-in warning signs and detectors to go against these kinds of attacks. It is, however, important to be aware of this possibility. You can not just blindly trust any blockchain out there to be a hundred percent safe.
SwapSpace team is always ready for discussion. You can drop an email about your suggestions and questions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Join our social networks: Twitter, Medium, Facebook The best rates on https://swapspace.co/ Why is SwapSpace https://blog.swapspace.co/2019/09/17/why-is-swapspace/
submitted by SwapSpace_co to CryptoCurrencies [link] [comments]

What Bitcoin Miners Actually Do What Do YOU Need to MINE ONE BITCOIN In 2020?! UPDATED ... Mining Pool Shares, Difficulty and Luck Explained What Do Bitcoin Miners Calculate - YouTube What is Bitcoin Mining? - YouTube

Bitcoin miners receive bitcoin as a reward for completing "blocks" of verified transactions which are added to the blockchain. Mining rewards are paid to the miner who discovers a solution to a ... To acquire this hashing power, you need about five Ebit E12 miners. Calculating the Cost. To get a better glimpse into the estimated cost of mining one bitcoin in 2019, we shall consider the following costs: The acquisition cost of one Ebit E12 miner = $1,930; Mining pool fees = 0 percent; Electricity cost (assuming you are in Burma and the cost is $0.03 per kWh) = $513.22 per year; In this ... Bitcoin Cash mining calculator. The first bitcoin miners have been capable of earn coins relatively rapidly just utilizing what computing power that they had in their properties. Right now, miners earn most of their earnings through the block reward. When all 21 million bitcoins are mined, there won’t be a block reward to pay to miners. The ... According to a report, bitcoin halving will cut down the production of the cryptocurrency by 50 percent. This will affect all the bitcoin miners because no one can control this process. Accurate Bitcoin mining calculator trusted by millions of cryptocurrency miners since May 2013 - developed by an OG Bitcoin miner looking to maximize on mining profits and calculate ROI for new ASIC miners. Updated in 2020, the newest version of the Bitcoin mining calculator makes it simple and easy to quickly calculate mining profitability for your Bitcoin mining hardware.

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What Bitcoin Miners Actually Do

What do you need to mine one Bitcoin BTC coin AFTER the block reward halving in 2020? Let's review Bitcoin mining profitability and what BTC mining rigs you ... My BitCoin mining operation & fixing cooling problems w/ 3D printer - Duration: 11:44. Barnacules Nerdgasm 390,103 views. 11:44. THE COOLEST BITCOIN MINE - Duration: 1:33. ... What Do Bitcoin Miners Calculate Bitcoin.com is your premier source for everything Bitcoin related. We help you buy, use, and store your Bitcoin securely. You can read the latest news. We also provide helpful tools and real-time ... As requested an overview of shares, difficulty and luck. Excuse my appearance as I am still under the weather a bit. More detailed vids to the series coming. Plotting Rig Build: ASRock X399 TAICHI ...

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